U.S. Monetary Policy and Stock Prices: Should the Fed Attempt to Control Stock Prices?
This article rejects the linkages in proposals that the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) target equity prices. The real federal funds rate (RFF) and stock prices (SP) are uncorrelated; causality tests show a positive effect of SP on RFF and a negative effect of SP on RFF. These results occur as part of the dynamics of a negative cointegrated relationship between SP and RFF. A theoretically expected inverse relation between SP and inflation accounts for the results. The negative effect of SP on FF is also confirmed in a Taylor Rule estimate. Higher stock prices anticipate lower, not higher, inflation.
|Date of creation:||01 Dec 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Steven A. Sharpe, 2001.
"Reexamining stock valuation and inflation: the implications of analysts' earnings forecasts,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2001-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Steven A. Sharpe, 2002. "Reexamining Stock Valuation and Inflation: The Implications Of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 632-648, November.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999.
"Monetary policy and asset price volatility,"
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole,
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128.
- John B. Taylor, 1999.
"A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules,"
in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James B. Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2002. "Why the Fed should ignore the stock market," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar., pages 35-42.
- James R. Booth & Lena Chua Booth, 1997. "Economic factors, monetary policy and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 32-42.
- Jensen, Gerald R. & Mercer, Jeffrey M. & Johnson, Robert R., 1996. "Business conditions, monetary policy, and expected security returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 213-237, February.
- James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003.
"Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2001.
"Measuring the Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market,"
NBER Working Papers
8350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian P. Sack, 2001. "Measuring the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- John A. Tatom & James E. Turley, 1978.
"Inflation and taxes: disincentives for capital formation,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 2-8.
- John A. Tatom & James E. Turley, 1979. "Inflation and taxes: disincentives for capital formation," Monograph, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, number 1979iadfc.
- Smets, Frank, 1997.
"Financial Asset Prices and Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1751, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Frank Smets, 1997. "Financial-asset Prices and Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Philip Lowe (ed.), Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Frank Smets, 1997. "Financial asset prices and monetary policy: theory and evidence," BIS Working Papers 47, Bank for International Settlements.
- Marcus Miller & Paul Weller & Lei Zhang, 2000. "Moral Hazard and the US Stock Market: Has Mr. Greenspan Created a Bubble?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1902, Econometric Society.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19762. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.