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U.S. Monetary Policy and Stock Prices: Should the Fed Attempt to Control Stock Prices?

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  • John, Tatom

Abstract

This article rejects the linkages in proposals that the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) target equity prices. The real federal funds rate (RFF) and stock prices (SP) are uncorrelated; causality tests show a positive effect of SP on RFF and a negative effect of SP on RFF. These results occur as part of the dynamics of a negative cointegrated relationship between SP and RFF. A theoretically expected inverse relation between SP and inflation accounts for the results. The negative effect of SP on FF is also confirmed in a Taylor Rule estimate. Higher stock prices anticipate lower, not higher, inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • John, Tatom, 2009. "U.S. Monetary Policy and Stock Prices: Should the Fed Attempt to Control Stock Prices?," MPRA Paper 19762, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19762
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
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    6. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128.
    7. Jensen, Gerald R. & Mercer, Jeffrey M. & Johnson, Robert R., 1996. "Business conditions, monetary policy, and expected security returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 213-237, February.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Bubbles; Asset Prices; Inflation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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