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Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule

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  • Pierre Siklos

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  • Martin Bohl

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Abstract

This paper estimates forward-looking and forecast-based Taylor rules for France, Germany, Italy, and the euro area. Performing extensive tests for over-identifying restrictions and instrument relevance, we find that asset prices can be highly relevant as instruments in policy rules. While asset prices improve Taylor rule estimates, different assets prove most relevant across countries and this result could be seen as complicating the tasks of the European Central Bank. Encompassing tests show that forecast-based outperform forward-looking Taylor rules. A policy implication is that central banks ought to release their own forecasts and the basis upon which they are generated.
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Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Siklos & Martin Bohl, 2009. "Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 39-59, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:20:y:2009:i:1:p:39-59 DOI: 10.1007/s11079-007-9063-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Siklos, Pierre L., 2013. "What's in a second opinion? Shadowing the ECB and the Bank of England," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 135-148.
    2. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlík, 2011. "Macroprudential Policies and Financial Stability," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(277), pages 318-334, June.
    3. Papadamou, Stephanos & Sidiropoulos, Moïse & Spyromitros, Eleftherios, 2017. "Does central bank independence affect stock market volatility?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, pages 855-864.
    4. Baxa, Jaromír & Horváth, Roman & Vašíček, Bořek, 2013. "Time-varying monetary-policy rules and financial stress: Does financial instability matter for monetary policy?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, pages 117-138.
    5. Andrew J Swiston, 2011. "Official Dollarization As a Monetary Regime; Its Effectson El Salvador," IMF Working Papers 11/129, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Pierre L. Siklos, 2009. "As Good As It Gets? The International Dimension to Canada's Monetary Policy Strategy Choices," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 292, July.
    7. Richard C.K. Burdekin & King Banaian & Mark Hallerberg & Pierre L. Siklos, 2011. "Fiscal and monetary institutions and policies: onward and upward?," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 340-354, November.
    8. Botzen, W.J. Wouter & Marey, Philip S., 2010. "Did the ECB respond to the stock market before the crisis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 303-322, May.
    9. Hamza Bennani, 2013. "Does the ECB consider the persistence of inflation differentials?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2129-2139.
    10. Chuku Chuku & Paul Middleditch, 2016. "Characterizing monetary and fiscal policy rules and interactions when commodity prices matter," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 222, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    11. Hamza Bennani, 2012. "National influences inside the ECB: an assessment from central bankers' statements," Working Papers hal-00992646, HAL.
    12. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlik, 2009. "Financial Instability Prevention," CAMA Working Papers 2009-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Siklos, Pierre L., 2006. "Hungary's entry into the euro area: Lessons for prospective members from a monetary policy perspective," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 366-384, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy reaction functions; Asset prices; Instruments; European Central Bank; E52; E58; C52;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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