Inflation Convergence and Divergence within the European Monetary Union
We study the convergence properties of inflation rates among the countries of the European Monetary Union over the period 1980-2004. Given the Maastricht agreements and the adoption of the single currency, the sample can be naturally split into two parts, before and after the birth of the euro. We study convergence in the first subsample by means of unit-root tests on inflation differentials, arguing that for testing absolute convergence, a power gain is achieved if the Dickey-Fuller regressions are run without an intercept term. We find evidence for the convergence hypothesis over the period 1980-97 and a clear indication of the important role played by the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) in strengthening the convergence process. We then investigate whether the second subsample is characterized by stable inflation rates across the European countries. Using stationarity tests on inflation differentials, we find evidence of diverging behavior. In particular, we can statistically detect two separate clusters, or stability clubs: (i) a lower-inflation group that comprises Germany, France, Belgium, Austria, and Finland and (ii) a higher-inflation one with Spain, the Netherlands, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland. Italy appears to form a cluster of its own, standing between the other two.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fabio Busetti & Andrew Harvey, 2007.
"Testing for trend,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
614, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Renato Flôres & Philippe Jorion & Pierre-Yves Preumont & Ariane Szafarz, 1999.
"Multivariate Unit root Tests of the PPP Hypothesis,"
ULB Institutional Repository
2013/711, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Flores, Renato & Jorion, Philippe & Preumont, Pierre-Yves & Szafarz, Ariane, 1999. "Multivariate unit root tests of the PPP hypothesis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 335-353, October.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Tom Doan, . "KPSS: RATS procedure to perform KPSS (Kwiatowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin) stationarity test," Statistical Software Components RTS00100, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Abuaf, Niso & Jorion, Philippe, 1990. " Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 157-74, March.
- Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998.
"The New Empirics of Economic Growth,"
98-01-012, Santa Fe Institute.
- Durlauf,S.N. & Quah,D.T., 1998. "The new empirics of economic growth," Working papers 3, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- S Durlauf & Danny Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," CEP Discussion Papers dp0384, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 6422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Harvey, A. & Vasco Carvalho, 2002. "Models for Converging Economies," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0216, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995.
"Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Angeloni Ignazio & Ehrmann Michael, 2007.
"Euro Area Inflation Differentials,"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics,
De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-36, August.
- O'Connell, Paul G. J., 1998. "The overvaluation of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, February.
- Bart Hobijn & Philip Hans Franses, 2000. "Asymptotically perfect and relative convergence of productivity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 59-81.
- Harvey, A. & Bates, D., 2003. "Multivariate Unit Root Tests and Testing for Convergence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0301, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Weber, Axel A. & Beck, Guenter, 2003. "How wide are European borders? On the integration effects of monetary unions," CFS Working Paper Series 2001/07, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002.
"Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
- Tom Doan, . "LEVINLIN: RATS procedure to perform Levin-Lin-Chu test for unit roots in panel data," Statistical Software Components RTS00242, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Ulrich K. M¸ller & Graham Elliott, 2003. "Tests for Unit Roots and the Initial Condition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1269-1286, 07.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2007:q:2:a:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Timo Laurmaa)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.