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Unit Labor Cost Growth Differentials in the Euro Area, Germany, and the US: Lessons from PANIC and Cluster Analysis

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  • Ulrich Fritsche
  • Vladimir Kuzin

Abstract

Inflation differentials in the Euro area are mainly due to a sustained divergence of wage developments across the Euro area, and narrower differences in labour productivity growth (Alvarez et al., 2006). We investigate convergence of inflation using unit labour cost (ULC) growth and applying PANIC (Bai and Ng, 2004) and cluster procedures (Hobijn and Franses, 2000, Busetti et al., 2006) to Euro area countries as well as US States, US Census Regions and German Länder. Euro area differs in that dispersion in general (and its fraction due to idiosyncratic factors in specific) is larger and common factors are much less important in explaining the variance of ULC growth. We report evidence for convergence clusters in all countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2007. "Unit Labor Cost Growth Differentials in the Euro Area, Germany, and the US: Lessons from PANIC and Cluster Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 667, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp667
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    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian Dullien & Ulrich Fritsche, 2007. "Anhaltende Divergenz bei Inflations- und Lohnentwicklung in der Eurozone: Gefahr für die Währungsunion?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(4), pages 56-76.
    2. Stephen Hall & Sérgio Lagoa, 2014. "Inflation and Business Cycle Convergence in the Euro Area: Empirical Analysis Using an Unobserved Component Model," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 885-908, November.
    3. Matei Demetrescu & Uwe Hassler & Adina Tarcolea, 2010. "Testing for stationarity in large panels with cross-dependence, and US evidence on unit labor cost," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 1381-1397.
    4. David Sondermann, 2014. "Productivity in the euro area: any evidence of convergence?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 999-1027, November.
    5. Helmut Herwartz & Florian Siedenburg, 2013. "To converge or not converge: unit labor cost inflation in the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 455-467, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unit labor costs; inflation; European Monetary Union; Germany; United States of America; convergence; convergence clubs; panel unit root tests; PANIC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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