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The New Keynesian Model and the Long-Run Vertical Phillips Curve: Does It Hold for Germany?

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  • Jan Gottschalk
  • Ulrich Fritsche

Abstract

New-Keynesian macroeconomic models typically assume that any long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment is ruled out. While this appears to be a reasonable characterization of the US economy, it is less clear that the natural rate hypothesis necessarily holds in a European country like Germany where hysteretic effects may invalidate it. Inspired by the framework developed by Farmer (2000) and Beyer and Farmer (2002), we investigate the long-run relationships between the interest rate, unemployment and inflation in West Germany from the early 1960s up to 2004 using a multivariate co-integration analysis technique. The results point to a structural break in the late 1970s. In the later time period we find for West German data a strong negative correlation between the trend components of inflation and unemployment. We show that this finding contradicts the natural rate hypothesis, introduce a version of the New Keynesian model which allows for some hysteresis and compare the effectiveness of monetary policy in these two models. In general, a policy rule with an aggressive response to a rise in unemployment performs better in a model with hysteretic characteristics than in a model without.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Gottschalk & Ulrich Fritsche, 2005. "The New Keynesian Model and the Long-Run Vertical Phillips Curve: Does It Hold for Germany?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 521, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp521
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    Cited by:

    1. Annabelle Mourougane, 2017. "Crisis, potential output and hysteresis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 149, pages 1-14.
    2. Jarmila Botev & Annabelle Mourougane, 2017. "Fiscal Consolidation: What Are the Breakeven Fiscal Multipliers?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 63(3), pages 295-316.
    3. Liam Graham & Dennis J. Snower, 2008. "Hyperbolic Discounting and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2‐3), pages 427-448, March.
    4. Ahrens, Steffen & Snower, Dennis J., 2014. "Envy, guilt, and the Phillips curve," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 69-84.
    5. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2007. "Unit labor cost growth differentials in the Euro area, Germany, and the US: lessons from PANIC and cluster analysis," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200703, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    6. Daniel Kienzler & Kai D. Schmid, 2014. "Hysteresis in Potential Output and Monetary Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(4), pages 371-396, September.
    7. Kitov, Ivan, 2007. "Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Germany," MPRA Paper 5088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Liam Graham & Dennis J. Snower, 2008. "Hyperbolic Discounting and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 427-448, March.
    9. Sharif, Bushra & Qayyum, Abdul, 2018. "Estimating the Inflation-Output Gap Trade-Off with Triangle Model in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 91166, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Daniel Kienzler & Kai Daniel Schmid, 2013. "Monetary Policy and Hysteresis in Potential Output," IMK Working Paper 116-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; Vector error correction model; Unemployment; Phillips curve; Hysteresis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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