Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand Up?
This paper deals with a critical assessment of the 'non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment' (NAIRU) for Germany. There are quite a few obstacles to perceiving the NAIRU as an easy-to-use analytical instrument: the possibility of a non-vertical Phillips curve, the occurrence of shocks and hysteresis effects, and the (mis-)measurement of important variables, cointegration issues and a time variability of the NAIRU. A new attempt is made to estimate a NAIRU for Germany using direct measures of inflationary expectations. However, by any method, the NAIRU is very hard to determine and subject to considerable arbitrariness. Copyright Verein für Socialpolitik and Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2005.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 6 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (05)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1465-6485|
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=1465-6485|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert J. Gordon, 1997.
"The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
- Gordon, Robert J, 1996. "The Time-varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1996. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 5735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Schlicht, Ekkehart, 2003. "Estimating Time-Varying Coefficients With the VC Program," Discussion Papers in Economics 34, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Fabiani, Silvia & Morgan, Julian, 2003. "Aggregation and euro area Phillips curves," Working Paper Series 0213, European Central Bank.
- Solow, Robert M, 1986. "Unemployment: Getting the Questions Right," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210(S)), pages S23-34, Supplemen.
- Wolfgang Franz & Robert J. Gordon, 1993.
"German and American Wage and Price Dynamics: Differences and Common Thenes,"
NBER Working Papers
4292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J., 1993. "German and American wage and price dynamics : Differences and common themes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 719-754, May.
- Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J, 1993. "German and American Wage and Price Dynamics: Differences and Common Themes," CEPR Discussion Papers 777, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000.
"The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1905, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Mankiw, N Gregory, 2001. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages C45-61, May.
- N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 7884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas Laubach, 2001.
"Measuring The NAIRU: Evidence From Seven Economies,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 218-231, May.
- Thomas Laubach, 1997. "Measuring the NAIRU : evidence from seven economies," Research Working Paper 97-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Franz, Wolfgang, 2003.
"Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand up?,"
ZEW Discussion Papers
03-35, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Graham, Liam & Snower, Dennis J., 2003.
"The Return of the Long-Run Phillips Curve,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3691, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fabiani, Silvia & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001.
"A system approach for measuring the euro area NAIRU,"
Working Paper Series
0065, European Central Bank.
- Silvia Fabiani & Ricardo Mestre, 2004. "A system approach for measuring the euro area NAIRU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 311-341, 05.
- Snower, Dennis J. & Karanassou, Marika, 2002.
"An Anatomy of the Phillips Curve,"
IZA Discussion Papers
635, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- George A. Akerlof & William T. Dickens & George L. Perry, 2000. "Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 1-60.
- Pete Richardson & Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Mara Meacci & David Rae & David Turner, 2000. "The Concept, Policy Use and Measurement of Structural Unemployment: Estimating a Time Varying NAIRU Across 21 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 250, OECD Publishing.
- Wolfgang Franz, 2001.
"Neues von der NAIRU?,"
Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik),
Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 221(3), pages 256-284.
- Jennifer V Greenslade & Richard G Pierse & Jumana Saleheen, 2003. "A Kalman filter approach to estimating the UK NAIRU," Bank of England working papers 179, Bank of England.
- Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996.
"How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?,"
NBER Working Papers
5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Forsells, Magnus & Kenny, Geoff, 2002. "The rationality of consumers' inflation expectations: survey-based evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0163, European Central Bank.
- Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J., 1993. "German and American wage and price dynamics: Differences and common themes," Discussion Papers 2, University of Konstanz, Center for International Labor Economics (CILE).
- David Gruen & Adrian Pagan & Christopher Thompson, 1999.
"The Phillips Curve in Australia,"
RBA Research Discussion Papers
rdp1999-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May.
- Rebecca L Driver & Jennifer V Greenslade & Richard G Pierse, 2003. "The role of expectations in estimates of the NAIRU in the United States and the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 180, Bank of England.
- Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
- Pfeiffer, Friedhelm & Franz, Wolfgang, 2002. "The Rationale for Wage Rigidity: Survey Evidence from German and US Firms," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-60, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Reckwerth, Jürgen, 1997. "Der Zusammenhang zwischen Inflation und Output in Deutschland unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Inflationserwartungen," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1997,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Batchelor, Roy A & Orr, Adrian B, 1988. "Inflation Expectations Revisited," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(219), pages 317-31, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:6:y:2005:i:2:p:131-153. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.