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The Phillips Curve and NAIRU Revisited: New Estimates for Germany

  • Bernd Fitzenberger

    ()

    (Albert-Ludwigs-Uni. Freiburg)

  • Wolfgang Franz

    ()

    (ZEW Mannheim)

  • Oliver Bode

    ()

    (Statistisches Bundesamt Wiesbaden)

This paper provides new estimates of a time-varying NAIRU for Germany taking account of the structural break caused by German unification using two alternative estimators, the Kalman-Filter and the partially linearmodel. Estimating a standard Phillips curve, the sumof coefficients associated with expected inflation is far below unity, whatever measure of expected inflation rates is employed. Therefore, either the NAIRU concept is not applicable to Germany or, as it is our suggestion, one estimates the unemployment rate that is compatible with a tolerable inflation rate of say 2 percent following roughly the inflation target put forward by the European Central Bank. The estimates presented in this paper suggest that the NAIRU compatible with 2 percent inflation in Germany is currently around 7 percent if the definition of unemployment follows the concept of the ILO. In contrast to the consensus in the literature, our estimates suggest furthermore that the NAIRU inGermany has not increased since the early 1990’s.

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Article provided by Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics in its journal Journal of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 228 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5+6 (December)
Pages: 465-496

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Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:228:y:2008:i:5-6:p:465-496
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  4. Marika Karanassou & Dennis J. Snower, 2002. "An Anatomy of the Phillips Curve," Working Papers 478, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  5. Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J., 1993. "German and American wage and price dynamics: Differences and common themes," Discussion Papers 2, University of Konstanz, Center for International Labor Economics (CILE).
  6. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "Trend inflation and inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Staff Reports 270, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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  12. Schreiber, Sven & Wolters, Jurgen, 2007. "The long-run Phillips curve revisited: Is the NAIRU framework data-consistent?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 355-367, June.
  13. Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J, 1993. "German and American Wage and Price Dynamics: Differences and Common Themes," CEPR Discussion Papers 777, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  17. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
  19. Sbordone, Argia M., 2002. "Prices and unit labor costs: a new test of price stickiness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 265-292, March.
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  22. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 7884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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