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Hysteresis And The Nairu In The Euro Area

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  • Camille Logeay
  • Silke Tober

Abstract

This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that hysteresis had on its development. Using the Kalman‐filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early 1970s. The Kalman‐filter technique is applied here using explicit exogenous variables. In order to test for hysteresis, the dependence of the Nairu on actual unemployment and long‐term unemployment is estimated and found to be significant for the Euro Area and Germany, respectively. The existence of hysteresis effects implies the possibility of a long‐run non‐superneutrality of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Camille Logeay & Silke Tober, 2006. "Hysteresis And The Nairu In The Euro Area," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(4), pages 409-429, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:53:y:2006:i:4:p:409-429
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9485.2006.00387.x
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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