IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

TFP change, output gap and inflation in the Russian Federation (1994-2006)


  • Michaelides, Panayotis
  • Milios, John


The present paper estimates Total Factor Productivity (TFP) change for the Russian economy in the time period 1994-2006. It also calculates potential output and output gap using a Cobb-Douglas (CD) production function and a Hodrick-Prescott filter, as well as the Non-Accelerating Wage Rate of Unemployment (NAWRU), and the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Capacity Utilization (NAICU) concepts. The results show that despite the severe economic crisis TFP has contributed to strong economic growth in the country after 1998, while the output gap, although negative between 1999 and 2003, has recently become positive. The relationship between output gap and inflation is examined and the results suggest that there is a strong (causal) relationship between output gap and inflation in the Russian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Michaelides, Panayotis & Milios, John, 2009. "TFP change, output gap and inflation in the Russian Federation (1994-2006)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 339-352, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:61:y::i:4:p:339-352

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jorgenson, Dale W, 1988. "Productivity and Postwar U.S. Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 23-41, Fall.
    2. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    3. Nienke Oomes & Oksana Dynnikova, 2006. "The Utilization-Adjusted Output Gap; Is the Russian Economy Overheating?," IMF Working Papers 06/68, International Monetary Fund.
    4. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    5. John Page, 1994. "The East Asian Miracle: Four Lessons for Development Policy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 219-282 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-247, July-Sept.
    7. John Marangos, 2004. "Modelling the privatization process in transition economies," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 585-604.
    8. Dimitz, Maria Antoinette, 2001. "Output gaps and technological progress in European monetary Union," Research Discussion Papers 20/2001, Bank of Finland.
    9. Ahking, Francis W. & Miller, Stephen M., 1985. "The relationship between government deficits, money growthm and inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 447-467.
    10. Kwon, Goohoon & Spilimbergo, Antonio, 2005. "Russia's Regions: Income Volatility, Labour Mobility and Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 5265, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Henry, S. G. B. & Holden, K., 1990. "Macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 283-284, October.
    12. John Marangos, 2003. "A political economy methodology in modelling the transition process," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2), pages 197-225.
    13. Abdelhak Senhadji, 2000. "Sources of Economic Growth: An Extensive Growth Accounting Exercise," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(1), pages 1-6.
    14. Alwyn Young, 1994. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," NBER Working Papers 4680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Andrienko, Yuri & Guriev, Sergei, 2003. "Determinants of Interregional Mobility in Russia: Evidence from Panel Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 3835, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
    17. Moses Abramovitz, 1956. "Resource and Output Trends in the United States Since 1870," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abra56-1, January.
    18. Dainis Stikuts, 2003. "Measuring Output Gap in Latvia," Working Papers 2003/02, Latvijas Banka.
    19. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, Paul, 1986. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 2, number 9780122951831 edited by Shell, Karl.
    20. Moses Abramovitz, 1956. "Resource and Output Trends in the United States Since 1870," NBER Chapters,in: Resource and Output Trends in the United States Since 1870, pages 1-23 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
    22. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    23. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
    24. Jørgen Elmeskov, 1993. "High and Persistent Unemployment: Assessment of the Problem and Its Causes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 132, OECD Publishing.
    25. W. Bolt & P.J.A. van Els, 1998. "Output gap and inflation in the EU," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 550, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    26. Andreas Billmeier, 2004. "Ghostbusting; Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?," IMF Working Papers 04/146, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Paula De Masi, 1997. "IMF Estimates of Potential Output; Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 97/177, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Voskoboynikov, Ilya B., 2012. "New measures of output, labour and capital in industries of the Russian economy," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-123, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    2. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-123 is not listed on IDEAS


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:61:y::i:4:p:339-352. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.