IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Business cycles and economic crisis in Greece (1960–2011): A long run equilibrium analysis in the Eurozone

  • Michaelides, Panayotis G.
  • Papageorgiou, Theofanis
  • Vouldis, Angelos T.

Empirical studies find that fluctuations in output and other macroeconomic aggregates are positively related across countries. Economic theory focuses on two main explanations: common shocks and common transmission mechanisms. In this paper, we conduct an empirical analysis of the international influences, specifically from the U.S. and E.U. on the Greek business-cycle. First, we provide an in-depth analysis of the Greek economy, summarizing crucial aspects and trends by means of relevant econometric techniques such as business cycles extraction and periodization based on filtering, spectral analysis and causality tests. Next, we assess the long-run equilibriums of the Greek economy with the rest of the E.U. countries and the U.S. economy by means of a Vector Error Correction model. Our results imply a significant shift in the long-run equilibriums of the Greek economy towards increasing convergence rates with the U.S. economy after the implementation of the common monetary policy and increasing convergence rates towards the peripheral countries of the E.M.U. Also, the Greek GDP fluctuations are found to be caused, to a certain extent, by the EMU and US fluctuations, implying a transmission mechanism of business cycles from the EMU and the US to the Greek economy.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999313000163
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 31 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 804-816

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:31:y:2013:i:c:p:804-816
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Les Oxley & David Greasley, 1998. "Vector autoregression, cointegration and causality: testing for causes of the British industrial revolution," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1387-1397.
  2. Andreas Billmeier, 2004. "Ghostbusting; Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?," IMF Working Papers 04/146, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Massmann, Michael & Mitchell, James, 2003. "Reconsidering the evidence: Are Eurozone business cycles converging," ZEI Working Papers B 05-2003, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  4. Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2004. "Which Lag Length Selection Criteria Should We Employ?," Economics Bulletin, , vol. 3(33), pages 1-9.
  5. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  6. Michael ARTIS & Ana Beatriz C. GALVÃO & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2003. "The transmission mechanism in a changing world," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/18, European University Institute.
  7. Heather D. Gibson & Stephan G. Hall & George S. Tavlas, 2011. "The Greek financial crisis: growing imbalances and sovereign spreads," Discussion Papers in Economics 11/25, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  8. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
  9. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
  10. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1991. "International evidence on the historical properties of business cycles," Staff Report 145, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, June.
  12. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  13. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
  14. Fabio Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2010. "Business cycle comovement in the G-7: common shocks or common transmission mechanisms?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(18), pages 2327-2345.
  15. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2006. "Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1687-1706.
  16. Pedro PEREZ-VAZQUEZ & Denise OSBORN & Michael ARTIS, . "The International Business Cycle in a Changing World:Volatility and the Propagation of Shocks," EcoMod2004 330600111, EcoMod.
  17. Theofanis Papageorgiou & Panayotis G. Michaelides & John G. Milios, 2011. "Technology and economic fluctuations in the US food sector (1958-2006): An empirical approach from a political economy perspective," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 140-164, January.
  18. Nicholas Apergis & Alexandros Panethimitakis, 2011. "Stylised facts of Greek business cycles: new evidence from aggregate and across regimes data," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(2), pages 147-165.
  19. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1998. "Sources and propagation of international output cycles: Common shocks or transmission?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 133-166, October.
  20. Stockman, Alan C & Tesar, Linda L, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 168-85, March.
  21. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  22. Christodoulakis, Nikos & Dimelis, Sophia & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1993. "Comparisons of Business Cycles in Greece and the EC: Idiosyncracies and Regularities," CEPR Discussion Papers 809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Kwark, Noh-Sun, 1999. "Sources of international business fluctuations: Country-specific shocks or worldwide shocks?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 367-385, August.
  24. repec:taf:japsta:v:35:y:2008:i:6:p:601-615 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Imbs, Jean, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 3779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
  27. Gerhard Fenz & Martin Schneider, 2008. "Transmission of business cycle shocks between the US and the euro area," Working Papers 145, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  28. Danthine, J.P. & Donaldson, J.B., 1991. "Methodological and Empirical Issues in Real Business Cycle Theory," Papers fb-_91-11, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  29. Bosworth, B. & Kollintzas, T., 2001. "Economic Growth in Greece: Past Performance and Future Prospects," DEOS Working Papers 134, Athens University of Economics and Business.
  30. Sofia Gouveia & Leonida Correia, 2008. "Business cycle synchronisation in the Euro area: the case of small countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 103-121, July.
  31. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Girardin, Michel, 1989. "Business cycles in Switzerland : A comparative study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 31-50, January.
  32. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
  33. Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-77, August.
  34. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Morana, Claudio, 2009. "International macroeconomic dynamics: A factor vector autoregressive approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 432-444, March.
  35. Thornton, Daniel L & Batten, Dallas S, 1985. "Lag-Length Selection and Tests of Granger Causality between Money and Income," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(2), pages 164-78, May.
  36. Imbs, Jean, 2004. "The Real Effects of Financial Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 4335, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  37. Wynne, Mark A & Koo, Jahyeong, 2000. "Business Cycles under Monetary Union: A Comparison of the EU and US," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(267), pages 347-74, August.
  38. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18.
  39. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2007. "Business cycle transmission from the US to Germany--A structural factor approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 521-551, April.
  40. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Papageorgiou, Theofanis, 2012. "On the transmission of economic fluctuations from the USA to EU-15 (1960–2011)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(6), pages 427-438.
  41. Alessandra Iacobucci, 2003. "Spectral Analysis for Economic Time Series," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2003-07, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  42. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  43. Athena Belegri-Roboli & Panayotis Michaelides, 2007. "Estimating labour and output gap: evidence from the Athens Olympic Region in Greece," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(19), pages 2519-2528.
  44. Lourdes Acedo Montoya & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Regional Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe," Bruges European Economic Research Papers 11, European Economic Studies Department, College of Europe.
  45. Agresti, Anna Maria & Mojon, Benoît, 2001. "Some stylised facts on the euro area business cycle," Working Paper Series 0095, European Central Bank.
  46. Andrew Dickerson & Heather Gibson & Euclid Tsakalotos, 1998. "Business Cycle Correspondence in the European Union," Empirica, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 49-75, January.
  47. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  48. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64 Elsevier.
  49. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August.
  50. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  51. King, R.G. & Rebelo, S.T., 1989. "Low Frequency Filtering And Real Business Cycles," RCER Working Papers 205, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  52. Tsakalotos, Euclid, 1998. "The Political Economy of Social Democratic Economic Policies: The Pasok Experiment in Greece," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 114-38, Spring.
  53. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  54. Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Milios, John G., 2010. "Business cycles synchronization and clustering in Europe (1960-2009)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(5), pages 419-470, September.
  55. Kollintzas, Tryphon & Vassilatos, Vanghelis, 1996. "A Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium Model for Greece," CEPR Discussion Papers 1518, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  56. Jung, Woo S. & Marshall, Peyton J., 1985. "Exports, growth and causality in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
  57. Ahking, Francis W. & Miller, Stephen M., 1985. "The relationship between government deficits, money growthm and inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 447-467.
  58. Burley, S P, 1969. "A Spectral Analysis of the Australian Business Cycle," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(13), pages 193-218, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:31:y:2013:i:c:p:804-816. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.