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Non performing loans (NPLs) in a crisis economy: Long-run equilibrium analysis with a real time VEC model for Greece (2001–2015)

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  • Konstantakis, Konstantinos N.
  • Michaelides, Panayotis G.
  • Vouldis, Angelos T.

Abstract

As a result of domestic and international factors, the Greek economy faced a severe crisis which is directly comparable only to the Great Recession. In this context, a prominent victim of this situation was the country’s banking system. This paper attempts to shed light on the determining factors of non-performing loans in the Greek banking sector. The analysis presents empirical evidence from the Greek economy, using aggregate data on a quarterly basis, in the time period 2001–2015, fully capturing the recent recession. In this work, we use a relevant econometric framework based on a real time Vector Autoregressive (VAR)—Vector Error Correction (VEC) model, which captures the dynamic interdependencies among the variables used. Consistent with international evidence, the empirical findings show that both macroeconomic and financial factors have a significant impact on non-performing loans in the country. Meanwhile, the deteriorating credit quality feeds back into the economy leading to a self-reinforcing negative loop.

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Vouldis, Angelos T., 2016. "Non performing loans (NPLs) in a crisis economy: Long-run equilibrium analysis with a real time VEC model for Greece (2001–2015)," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 451(C), pages 149-161.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:451:y:2016:i:c:p:149-161
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.12.163
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    Cited by:

    1. Feng-Wen Chen & Yuan Feng & Wei Wang, 2018. "Impacts of Financial Inclusion on Non-Performing Loans of Commercial Banks: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(9), pages 1-28, August.
    2. Maria Karadima & Helen Louri, 2021. "Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in Greece: the intricate role of fiscal expansion," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 160, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    3. Kolliopoulos, Athanasios, 2021. "Reforming the Greek financial system: a decade of failure," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108523, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Athanasios Kolliopoulos, 2021. "Reforming the Greek Financial System: a decade of failure," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 155, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    5. Isma’il Tijjani Idris & Sabri Nayan, 2017. "A Pooled Mean Group Approach to the Joint Effects of Oil Price Changes and Environmental Risks on Non-Performing Loans: Evidence from Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting the Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 345-351.
    6. Morakinyo Akinola & Muller Colette & Sibanda Mabutho, 2018. "Non-Performing Loans, Banking System and Macroeconomy," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 63(2), pages 67-86, August.
    7. Florian Manz, 2019. "Determinants of non-performing loans: What do we know? A systematic review and avenues for future research," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 69(4), pages 351-389, November.
    8. Ueda, Renan Mitsuo & Souza, Adriano Mendonça & Menezes, Rui Manuel Campilho Pereira, 2020. "How macroeconomic variables affect admission and dismissal in the Brazilian electro-electronic sector: A VAR-based model and cluster analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 557(C).
    9. Zhang, Chi & Zhou, Kaile & Yang, Shanlin & Shao, Zhen, 2017. "Exploring the transformation and upgrading of China’s economy using electricity consumption data: A VAR–VEC based model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 473(C), pages 144-155.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    VAR/VEC; NPLs; Greece; Crisis; Macro-economy; Banking sector;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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