IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jbuscr/v13y2017i2d10.1007_s41549-017-0018-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stylized Facts of the Business Cycle: Universal Phenomenon, or Institutionally Determined?

Author

Listed:
  • Vadim Kufenko

    () (University of Hohenheim)

  • Niels Geiger

    () (University of Hohenheim)

Abstract

Abstract This paper empirically investigates and theoretically reflects on the generality of some “stylized facts” of business cycles. Using data for 1960–2016 and a sample of OECD countries, the duration of business cycles as well as three models capturing core macroeconomic relations are estimated: the Phillips curve (the inflation-unemployment nexus), Okun’s law (i.e. the relation between output growth and unemployment) and the inflation-output relation. Results are validated by relevant statistical tests. Observed durations vary from 4.2 to 7.4 years, and estimated coefficients differ in signs and magnitudes. An explanation of this heterogeneity is attempted by referring to proxies for various institutional variables. The findings suggest that core coefficients in the relations, such as the slope of the Phillips curve, show significant correlation with some of these variables, but no uniform results are obtained. In the detailed theoretical discussion and interpretation it is thus argued that the notable differences between countries call the universality of the “stylized facts” into question, but also that these variations cannot be explained exhaustively by the institutional proxy variables employed here.

Suggested Citation

  • Vadim Kufenko & Niels Geiger, 2017. "Stylized Facts of the Business Cycle: Universal Phenomenon, or Institutionally Determined?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(2), pages 165-187, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jbuscr:v:13:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s41549-017-0018-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s41549-017-0018-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41549-017-0018-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gnocchi, Stefano & Lagerborg, Andresa & Pappa, Evi, 2015. "Do labor market institutions matter for business cycles?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 299-317.
    2. Hartley, James E & Hoover, Kevin D & Salyer, Kevin D, 1997. "The Limits of Business Cycle Research: Assessing the Real Business Cycle Model," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 34-54, Autumn.
    3. U. Michael Bergman & Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1998. "Historical evidence on business cycles: the international experience," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 65-119.
    4. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Ortega, Eva, 2012. "Do institutional changes affect business cycles? Evidence from Europe," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1520-1533.
    5. Wolfgang Ochel, 2001. "Collective Bargaining Coverage in the OECD from the 1960s to the 1990s," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(4), pages 62-65, February.
    6. Agresti, Anna Maria & Mojon, Benoît, 2001. "Some stylised facts on the euro area business cycle," Working Paper Series 0095, European Central Bank.
    7. Sumru Altug & Bilin Neyapti & Mustafa Emin, 2012. "Institutions and Business Cycles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 347-366, December.
    8. Sumru Altug & Fabio Canova, 2014. "Do Institutions and Culture Matter for Business Cycles?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 93-122, February.
    9. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-355, December.
    10. Maria Simona Andreano & Giovanni Savio, 2002. "Further evidence on business cycle asymmetries in G7 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 895-904.
    11. Edward L. Glaeser & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2004. "Do Institutions Cause Growth?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 271-303, September.
    12. Solow, Robert M, 1997. "Is There a Core of Usable Macroeconomics We Should All Believe In?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 230-232, May.
    13. repec:wbk:wbpubs:26447 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Moosa, Imad A., 1997. "A Cross-Country Comparison of Okun's Coefficient," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 335-356, June.
    15. Fabio Rumler & Johann Scharler, 2011. "Labor Market Institutions And Macroeconomic Volatility In A Panel Of Oecd Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(3), pages 396-413, July.
    16. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    17. Simon Kuznets, 1933. "Appendices to "Seasonal Variations in Industry and Trade"," NBER Chapters,in: Seasonal Variations in Industry and Trade, pages 369-448 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Roger Perman & Christophe Tavera, 2005. "A cross-country analysis of the Okun's Law coefficient convergence in Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2501-2513.
    19. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
    20. Holwegler, Bernhard & Trautwein, Hans-Michael, 1998. "Beschäftigungswirkungen der Internationalisierung - Eine Studie aus- und einfließender Direktinvestitionen der Metall- und Elektroindustrie im Raum Stuttgart," Violette Reihe: Schriftenreihe des Promotionsschwerpunkts "Globalisierung und Beschäftigung" 1/1998, University of Hohenheim, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Evangelisches Studienwerk.
    21. Simon Kuznets, 1933. "Introduction to "Seasonal Variations in Industry and Trade"," NBER Chapters,in: Seasonal Variations in Industry and Trade, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 353-398, September.
    23. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    24. Raquel Fonseca & Lise Patureau & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2010. "Business Cycle Comovement and Labor Market Institutions: An Empirical Investigation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(5), pages 865-881, November.
    25. William Nickell, 2006. "The CEP-OECD Institutions Data Set (1960-2004)," CEP Discussion Papers dp0759, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    26. Simon Kuznets, 1933. "Seasonal Variations in Industry and Trade," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn33-1.
    27. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    28. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1979. "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1287-1294, September.
    29. Fiorito, Riccardo & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1994. "Stylized facts of business cycles in the G7 from a real business cycles perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 235-269, February.
    30. Ho-Chuan (River) Huang & Chih-Chuan Yeh, 2013. "Okun's law in panels of countries and states," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 191-199, January.
    31. repec:eee:macchp:v2-415 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Nickell, William, 2006. "The CEP-OECD institutions data set (1960-2004)," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19789, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    33. Tryphon Kollintzas & Ioanna Konstantakopoulou & Efthymios Tsionas, 2011. "Stylized facts of money and credit over the business cycles," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(23), pages 1735-1755.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Empirical analysis; Institutions; Stylized facts;

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E39 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Other
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jbuscr:v:13:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s41549-017-0018-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.