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Institutions and Business Cycles

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  • Sumru Altug

    (Koc University and CEPR)

  • Mustafa Emin

    (Bocconi University)

  • Bilin Neyapti

    (Bilkent University)

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between the main business cycles features and the institutional and structural characteristics of countries in which they are observed. We derive the business cycle characteristics of the individual countries using the nonparametric Harding-Pagan approach. Our sample is comprised of 63 countries that includes industrial, emerging and formerly centrally planned economies from all continents. We correlate these characteristics with a wide range of macroeconomic, structural and institutional factors that have been hypothesized to affect macroeconomic outcomes. In our analysis, we also examine the determinants of business cycle synchronization for the countries in our sample. In contrast to earlier studies which seek to account for such synchronization using gravity arguments as well as trade intensity and bilateral financial linkages, we also consider the proximity of their institutional and policy environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Sumru Altug & Mustafa Emin & Bilin Neyapti, 2011. "Institutions and Business Cycles," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1109, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  • Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:1109
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    Cited by:

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    3. N. Kundan Kishor & Salome Giorgadze, 2022. "Business cycle synchronization in the CIS region," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(1), pages 135-158, January.
    4. Dirk Bursian & Alfons Weichenrieder & Jochen Zimmer, 2015. "Trust in government and fiscal adjustments," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 22(4), pages 663-682, August.
    5. Altug, Sumru & Tan, Barış & Gencer, Gözde, 2012. "Cyclical dynamics of industrial production and employment: Markov chain-based estimates and tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1534-1550.
    6. Sumru Altug & Fabio Canova, 2014. "Do Institutions and Culture Matter for Business Cycles?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 93-122, February.
    7. Ductor, Lorenzo & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Dynamics of global business cycle interdependence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 110-127.
    8. Vadim Kufenko & Niels Geiger, 2017. "Stylized Facts of the Business Cycle: Universal Phenomenon, or Institutionally Determined?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(2), pages 165-187, November.
    9. Canova, Fabio & Dallari, Pietro, 2013. "How important is tourism for the international transmission of cyclical fluctuations? Evidence from the Mediterranean," Working Paper Series 1553, European Central Bank.
    10. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2012. "ClubMed? Cyclical fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 162-175.
    11. Sumru Altug & Erhan Uluceviz, 2011. "Leading Indicators of Real Activity and Inflation for Turkey, 2001-2010," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1134, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Institutions; business cycles; synchronization; nonparametric analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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