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Trust in government and fiscal adjustments

Author

Listed:
  • Bursian, Dirk
  • Weichenrieder, Alfons J.
  • Zimmer, Jochen

Abstract

The paper looks at the determinants of fiscal adjustments as reflected in the primary surplus of countries. Our conjecture is that governments will usually find it more attractive to pursue fiscal adjustments in a situation of relatively high growth, but based on a simple stylized model of government behavior the expectation is that mainly high trust governments will be in a position to defer consolidation to years with higher growth. Overall, our analysis of a panel of European countries provides support for this expectation. The difference in fiscal policies depending on government trust levels may help explaining why better governed countries have been found to have less severe business cycles. It suggests that trust and credibility play an important role not only in monetary policy, but also in fiscal policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Bursian, Dirk & Weichenrieder, Alfons J. & Zimmer, Jochen, 2013. "Trust in government and fiscal adjustments," SAFE Working Paper Series 22, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:safewp:22
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2017. "Risk assessment on euro area government bond markets – The role of governance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 104-117.
    3. Maarten van Rooij & Jakob de Haan, 2016. "Will helicopter money be spent? New evidence," DNB Working Papers 538, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    4. Tomankova Ivana, 2019. "An Empirically-Aligned Concept of Trust in Government," NISPAcee Journal of Public Administration and Policy, Sciendo, vol. 12(1), pages 161-174, June.
    5. Jasper Lukkezen & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2016. "A Stochastic Indicator for Sovereign Debt Sustainability," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 72(3), pages 229-267, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trust; debt sustainability; fiscal reaction function; euro area; EU;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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