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Trust in the monetary authority

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  • Bursian, Dirk
  • Faia, Ester

Abstract

Trust in policy makers fluctuates significantly over the cycle, evaporating during crises and affecting the transmission mechanism. Despite this, it is absent from the literature. We build a monetary model where trust emerges endogenously as an equilibrium of a strategic interaction (moral hazard with uncertainty on policy actions) between betrayal-averse agents and policy makers with stochastic incentives to deviate, conditioned on past policy outcomes as signals. A fall in trust, due to shocks or policy actions, increases the price that agents attach to future contingencies, amplifies fluctuations, and steepens the sacrifice ratio. We test the transmission of shocks through VAR analyses where trust is proxied by answers to the Eurobarometer surveys.

Suggested Citation

  • Bursian, Dirk & Faia, Ester, 2018. "Trust in the monetary authority," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 66-79.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:98:y:2018:i:c:p:66-79
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.04.009
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    3. Eickmeier, Sandra & Petersen, Luba, 2024. "Toward a holistic approach to central bank trust," Discussion Papers 27/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Dirk Bursian & Alfons Weichenrieder & Jochen Zimmer, 2015. "Trust in government and fiscal adjustments," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 22(4), pages 663-682, August.
    5. Elżbieta Szaruga & Elżbieta Skąpska & Elżbieta Załoga & Wiesław Matwiejczuk, 2018. "Trust and Distress Prediction in Modal Shift Potential of Long-Distance Road Freight in Containers: Modeling Approach in Transport Services for Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-19, July.
    6. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2024. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 425-457, June.
    7. Ewa Stanisławska & Maritta Paloviita, 2021. "Medium- vs. short-term consumer inflation expectations: evidence from a new euro area survey," NBP Working Papers 338, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    8. Ehrmann, Michael & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff, 2025. "Credibility gains from central bank communication with the public," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    9. McDowell, Daniel & Steinberg, David A., 2024. "Black representation and the popular legitimacy of the Federal Reserve," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    10. Brouwer, Nils & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "Trust in the ECB: Drivers and consequences," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Stanisławska, Ewa & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "Responsiveness of consumers' medium-term inflation expectations : evidence from a new euro area survey," Research Discussion Papers 10/2021, Bank of Finland.
    12. Michael J. Lamla & Damjan Pfajfar & Lea Rendell, 2019. "Inflation and deflationary biases in inflation expectations," BIS Working Papers 789, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2024. "Trust and monetary policy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 903-931, July.
    14. Maciej Albinowski & Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca, 2014. "Links between trust in the ECB and its interest rate policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(25), pages 3090-3106, September.
    15. Michael J. Lamla & Damjan Pfajfar & Lea Rendell, 2024. "Inflation and Deflationary Biases in the Distribution of Inflation Expectations: Theory and Empirical Evidence from Nine Countries," Working Papers 24-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    16. Loïc Sauce, 2022. "The unintended consequences of the regulation of cryptocurrencies," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 46(1), pages 57-71.
    17. Muhammed Bulutay, 2024. "Better than Perceived? Correcting Misperceptions about Central Bank Inflation Forecasts," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0034, Berlin School of Economics.
    18. Tomankova Ivana, 2019. "An Empirically-Aligned Concept of Trust in Government," NISPAcee Journal of Public Administration and Policy, Sciendo, vol. 12(1), pages 161-174, June.
    19. Baranyai, Eszter & Kolozsi, Pál Péter & Neszveda, Gábor & Lehmann, Kristóf & Banai, Ádám, 2025. "The impact of the green direction in central banking on the general public's trust: Evidence from Hungary," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    20. Ehrmann, Michael & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff, 2023. "Credibility gains from communicating with the public: evidence from the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy," Working Paper Series 2785, European Central Bank.
    21. Michael Lamla & Damjan Pfajfar & Lea Rendell, 2018. "Confidence in Central Banks and Inflation Expectations," 2018 Meeting Papers 945, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    22. Carin van der Cruijsen & Anna Samarina, 2021. "Trust in the ECB in turbulent times," Working Papers 722, DNB.

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    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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