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Uncertainty Aversion in Game Theory: Experimental Evidence

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  • Evan Calford

Abstract

This paper experimentally investigates the role of uncertainty aversion in normal form games. Theoretically, risk aversion will affect the utility value assigned to realized outcomes while ambiguity aversion affects the evaluation of strategies. In practice, however, utilities over outcomes are unobservable and the effects of risk and ambiguity are confounded. This paper introduces a novel methodology for identifying the effects of risk and ambiguity preferences on behavior in games in a laboratory environment. Furthermore, we also separate the effects of a subject's beliefs over her opponent's preferences from the effects of her own preferences. The results support the conjecture that both preferences over uncertainty and beliefs over opponent's preferences affect behavior in normal form games.

Suggested Citation

  • Evan Calford, 2017. "Uncertainty Aversion in Game Theory: Experimental Evidence," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1291, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pur:prukra:1291
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    2. Lisa Bruttel & Muhammed Bulutay & Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann & Adam Zylbersztejn, 2023. "Measuring strategic-uncertainty attitudes," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(3), pages 522-549, July.
    3. Calford, Evan, 2016. "Mixed Strategies in Games with Ambiguity Averse Agents," MPRA Paper 74909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Cédric Gutierrez & Emmanuel Kemel, 2024. "Measuring natural source dependence," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 27(2), pages 379-416, April.
    5. Calford, Evan M., 2021. "Mixed strategies and preference for randomization in games with ambiguity averse agents," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    6. Cathleen Johnson & Aurélien Baillon & Han Bleichrodt & Zhihua Li & Dennie Dolder & Peter P. Wakker, 2021. "Prince: An improved method for measuring incentivized preferences," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 1-28, February.
    7. Li, Chen & Turmunkh, Uyanga & Wakker, Peter P., 2020. "Social and strategic ambiguity versus betrayal aversion," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 272-287.
    8. Li, Jiangyan & Fairley, Kim & Fenneman, Achiel, 2024. "Does it matter how we produce ambiguity in experiments?," MPRA Paper 122336, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Matteo M. Marini & Aurora García-Gallego & Luca Corazzini, 2018. "Communication in a threshold public goods game with ambiguity: Anomalies and regularities," Working Papers 2018/03, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    10. David Kelsey & Sara le Roux, 2018. "Strategic ambiguity and decision-making: an experimental study," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 84(3), pages 387-404, May.
    11. Evan M. Calford & Gregory DeAngelo, 2023. "Ambiguity and enforcement," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(2), pages 304-338, April.
    12. Johannes Carow & Niklas M. Witzig, 2024. "Time Pressure and Strategic Risk-Taking in Professional Chess," Working Papers 2404, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    13. Caetano, Rafaela Vital & Marques, António Cardoso, 2023. "Could energy transition be a game changer for the transfer of polluting industries from developed to developing countries? An application of game theory," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 351-363.
    14. Andrea Morone & Paola Tiranzoni, 2020. "Bargaining in a "Pawn Shop": A field experiment to study WTA," Framed Field Experiments 00702, The Field Experiments Website.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ambiguity Aversion; Game Theory; Experimental Economics; Preferences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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