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Inflation and Deflationary Biases in Inflation Expectations

Author

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  • Lamla, Michael
  • PJaifar, Damian
  • Rendell, Lea

Abstract

We explore the consequences of losing confidence in the price-stability objective of central banks by quantifying the inflation and deflationary biases in inflation expectations. In a model with an occasionally binding zero-lower-bound constraint, we show that both inflation bias and deflationary bias can exist as a steady-state outcome. We assess the predictions of this model using unique individual-level inflation expectations data across nine countries that allow for a direct identification of these biases. Both inflation and deflationary biases are present and sizable, but different across countries. Even among the euro-area countries, perceptions of the European Central Bank’s objectives are very distinct.

Suggested Citation

  • Lamla, Michael & PJaifar, Damian & Rendell, Lea, 2019. "Inflation and Deflationary Biases in Inflation Expectations," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 24771, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:esy:uefcwp:24771
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    File URL: https://repository.essex.ac.uk/24771/
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    Cited by:

    1. Corsello, Francesco & Neri, Stefano & Tagliabracci, Alex, 2021. "Anchored or de-anchored? That is the question," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    2. Lena Dräger & Michael J. Lamla, 2024. "Consumers' macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 427-451, April.
    3. Mridula Duggal & Luis E. Rojas, 2023. "Optimal Disinflation with Delegation and Limited Credibility," Working Papers 1401, Barcelona School of Economics.
    4. Meinerding, Christoph & Poinelli, Andrea & Schüler, Yves, 2022. "Inflation expectations and climate concern," Discussion Papers 12/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. John Thornton & Chrysovalantis Vasilakis, 2025. "Further evidence on inflation targeting and income distribution," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 91(4), pages 1474-1493, April.
    6. Dräger, Lena & Gründler, Klaus & Potrafke, Niklas, 2025. "Political shocks and inflation expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    7. Abildgren, Kim & Kuchler, Andreas, 2021. "Revisiting the inflation perception conundrum," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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