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Inflation and Deflationary Biases in Inflation Expectations

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  • Lamla, Michael
  • PJaifar, Damian
  • Rendell, Lea

Abstract

We explore the consequences of losing confidence in the price-stability objective of central banks by quantifying the inflation and deflationary biases in inflation expectations. In a model with an occasionally binding zero-lower-bound constraint, we show that both inflation bias and deflationary bias can exist as a steady-state outcome. We assess the predictions of this model using unique individual-level inflation expectations data across nine countries that allow for a direct identification of these biases. Both inflation and deflationary biases are present and sizable, but different across countries. Even among the euro-area countries, perceptions of the European Central Bank’s objectives are very distinct.

Suggested Citation

  • Lamla, Michael & PJaifar, Damian & Rendell, Lea, 2019. "Inflation and Deflationary Biases in Inflation Expectations," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 24771, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
  • Handle: RePEc:esy:uefcwp:24771
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation bias; deflationary bias; confidence in central banks; trust; effective lower bound; inflation expectations; microdata.;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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