Does the Barro-Gordon Model Explain the Behavior of US Inflation? a Reexamination of the Empirical Evidence
This paper tests the predictions of the Barro-Gordon model using US data on inflation and unemployment. To that end, it constructs a general game-theoretical model with asymmetric preferences that nests the Barro-Gordon model and a version of Cukierman’s model as special cases. Likelihood Ratio tests indicate that the restriction imposed by the Barro-Gordon model is rejected by the data but the one imposed by the version of Cukierman’s model is not. Reduced-form estimates are consistent with the view that the Federal Reserve weights more heavily positive than negative unemployment deviations from the expected natural rate.
|Date of creation:||2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: CP 6128, Succ. Centre-Ville, Montréal, Québec, H3C 3J7|
Phone: (514) 343-6540
Fax: (514) 343-5831
Web page: http://www.sceco.umontreal.ca
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter N. Ireland, 1998.
"Does the Time-Consistency Problem Explain the Behavior of Inflation in the United States?,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
415, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Ireland, Peter N., 1999. "Does the time-consistency problem explain the behavior of inflation in the United States?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 279-291, October.
- Peter Ireland, 1998. "Matlab code for Does the Time-Consistency Problem Explain the Behavior of Inflation in the United States?," QM&RBC Codes 44, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Banking in Theory and Practice," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522608.
- Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, .
"Political Economics and Macroeconomic Policy,"
121, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Persson, T. & Tabellini, G., 1997. "Political Economics and Macroeconomic Policy," Papers 630, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1997. "Political Economics and Macroeconomic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Persson, Torsten & Tabellini , Guido, 1997. "Political Economics and Macroeconomic Policy," Seminar Papers 630, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, 1997. "Political Economics and Macroeconomic Policy," NBER Working Papers 6329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1994.
"Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christoffersen & Diebold, . "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," Home Pages 167, 1996., University of Pennsylvania.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "Optimal prediction under asymmetric loss," Working Papers 97-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, . "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," CARESS Working Papres 97-20, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
- Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
- Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
- Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983.
"A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
- Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1997.
"Crucial issues concerning central bank independence,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 99-112, June.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1996. "Crucial Issues Concerning Central Bank Independence," NBER Working Papers 5597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
- Granger, C.W.J. & Pesaran, H., 1996. "A Decision_Theoretic Approach to Forecast Evaluation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9618, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Cukierman, A., 1999. "The Inflation Bias Result Revisited," Papers 38-99, Tel Aviv.
- repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:6:p:808-17 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2004.
"The inflation bias when the central bank targets the natural rate of unemployment,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 91-107, February.
- RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2001. "The Inflation Bias When the Central Bank Targets, the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Cahiers de recherche 2001-22, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Pagan, Adrian & Ullah, Aman, 1988. "The Econometric Analysis of Models with Risk Terms," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 87-105, April.
- Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
- Geoffrey M.B. Tootell, 1994. "Restructuring, the NAIRU, and the Phillips curve," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 31-44.
- Dolado, Juan J. & María-Dolores, Ramón & Naveira Barrero, Manuel, 2000. "Asymmetries In Monetary Policy Rules: Evidence For Four Central Banks," CEPR Discussion Papers 2441, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- A. Robert Nobay & David A. Peel, 1998. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Model of Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences," FMG Discussion Papers dp306, Financial Markets Group.
- Kimball, Miles S, 1990.
"Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large,"
Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January.
- Miles S. Kimball, 1989. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," NBER Working Papers 2848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Athanasios Orphanides & David W. Wilcox, 1996.
"The opportunistic approach to disinflation,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
96-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:2002-07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sharon BREWER)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.