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The Inflation Bias When the Central Bank Targets, the Natural Rate of Unemployment

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  • RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J.

Abstract

This paper studies the proposition that an inflation bias can arise in a setup where a central banker with asymmetric preferences targets the natural unemployment rate. Preferences are asymmetric in the sense that positive unemployment deviations from the natural rate are weighted more (or less) severely than negative deviations in the central banker's loss function. The bias is proportional to the conditional variance of unemployment. The time-series predictions of the model are evaluated using data from G7 countries. Econometric estimates support the prediction that the conditional variance of unemployment and the rate of inflation are positively related.

Suggested Citation

  • RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2001. "The Inflation Bias When the Central Bank Targets, the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Cahiers de recherche 2001-22, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  • Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:2001-22
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1866/478
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    Keywords

    inflation bias; asymmetric eferences;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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