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Do Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences Help Explain Observed Inflation Outcomes?

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  • Matthew Doyle

    (Department of Economics, University of Waterloo)

  • Barry Falk

    (Department of Economics, James Madison University)

Abstract

When the central banker’s loss function is asymmetric, changes in the volatility of inflation and/or unemployment affect equilibrium inflation. This suggests that changing macroeconomic volatilities may be an important driving force behind trends in observed inflation. Previous evidence, which has offered support for this idea, suffers from a spurious regression problem. Once this problem is controlled for, the evidence suggests that the volatility of unemployment does not help explain inflation outcomes. There is some evidence of a relationship between inflation and its volatility, but overall the data does not support the view that changing economic volatility, as filtered through asymmetric central bank preferences, is an important driver of inflation trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Doyle & Barry Falk, 2009. "Do Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences Help Explain Observed Inflation Outcomes?," Working Papers 0902, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:wat:wpaper:0902
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabián Gredig, 2007. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules and the Achievement of the Inflation Target: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 451, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Chesang, Laban K. & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2016. "Parameter uncertainty and inflation dynamics in a model with asymmetric central bank preferences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-10.
    3. C. Patrick Scott, 2016. "Are central bank preferences asymmetric when policy targets vary over time?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 577-589, September.
    4. Matthew Doyle & Jean-Paul Lam, 2010. "Is the New Keynesian Explanation of the Great Dis-Inflation Consistent with the Cross Country Data?," Working Papers 1010, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2010.
    5. Hayat, Zafar & Balli, Faruk & Obben, James & Shakur, Shamim, 2016. "An empirical assessment of monetary discretion: The case of Pakistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 954-970.
    6. López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2013. "Interest rates, government purchases and the Taylor rule in recessions and expansions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 382-392.
    7. Osama D. Sweidan, 2009. "Asymmetric central bank's preference and inflation rate in Jordan," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 26(4), pages 232-245, October.
    8. Ikeda, Taro, 2010. "Time-varying asymmetries in central bank preferences: The case of the ECB," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1054-1066, December.
    9. Matthew Doyle & Barry Falk, 2008. "Testing Commitment Models of Monetary Policy: Evidence from OECD Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2‐3), pages 409-425, March.
    10. Mehdi Hajamini, 2019. "Asymmetric Causality Between Inflation and Uncertainty: Evidences from 33 Developed and Developing Countries," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(2), pages 287-309, June.
    11. Komlan, Fiodendji, 2013. "The asymmetric reaction of monetary policy to inflation and the output gap: Evidence from Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 911-923.
    12. Osama Sweidan, 2008. "The Asymmetric Loss Function and the Central Banks' Ability in Developing Countries," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 387-403.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Monetary Policy; Asymmetric Loss Function.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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