IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v40y2008i13p1651-1667.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing for asymmetries in the preferences of the euro-area monetary policymaker

Author

Listed:
  • Alvaro Aguiar
  • Manuel Martins

Abstract

This article tests for asymmetries in the preferences of the euro-area monetary policymaker with 1995:1-2005:2 data from the latest update of the European Central Bank's (ECB's) Area-wide database. Following the relevant literature, we distinguish between three types of asymmetry: precautionary demand for expansions, precautionary demand for price stability and interest rate smoothing asymmetry. Based on the joint generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation of the Euler equation of optimal policy and the aggregate supply-aggregate demand (AS-AD) structure of the macroeconomy, we find evidence of precautionary demand for price stability in the preferences revealed by the monetary policymaker. This type of asymmetry is consistent with the ECB's definition of price stability and with the priority of credibility-building by a recently created monetary authority.

Suggested Citation

  • Alvaro Aguiar & Manuel Martins, 2008. "Testing for asymmetries in the preferences of the euro-area monetary policymaker," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(13), pages 1651-1667.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:40:y:2008:i:13:p:1651-1667
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840600870999
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840600870999
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alex Cukierman, 2002. "Are contemporary central banks transparent about economic models and objectives and what difference does it make?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 15-36.
    2. Dolado Juan & Pedrero Ramón María-Dolores & Ruge-Murcia Francisco J., 2004. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the U.S," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-34, September.
    3. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2003. "Does the Barro-Gordon model explain the behavior of US inflation? A reexamination of the empirical evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1375-1390, September.
    4. Gerlach, Stefan, 2003. "Recession aversion, output and the Kydland-Prescott Barro-Gordon model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 389-394, December.
    5. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2004. "Modelling Monetary Policy: Inflation Targeting in Practice," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71(281), pages 209-221, May.
    6. Alex Cukierman & Stefan Gerlach, 2003. "The inflation bias revisited: theory and some international evidence," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(5), pages 541-565, September.
    7. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J, 2003. " Inflation Targeting under Asymmetric Preferences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 763-785, October.
    8. Cukierman, A., 1999. "The Inflation Bias Result Revisited," Papers 38-99, Tel Aviv.
    9. Paolo Surico, 2002. "Inflation Targeting and Nonlinear Policy Rules: the Case of Asymmetric Preferences," Macroeconomics 0210002, EconWPA, revised 23 Feb 2004.
    10. Charles Goodhart, 1998. "Central Bankers and Uncertainty," FMG Special Papers sp106, Financial Markets Group.
    11. Bec Frédérique & Ben Salem Mélika & Collard Fabrice, 2002. "Asymmetries in Monetary Policy Reaction Function: Evidence for U.S. French and German Central Banks," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-22, July.
    12. Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim & Marianne Sensier, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the Fed's monetary policy rule," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 621-639.
    13. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2002. "Eurosystem monetary targeting: Lessons from U.S. data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 417-442, March.
    14. Alex Cukierman & Anton Muscatelli, 2001. "Do Central Banks have Precautionary Demands for Expansions and for Price Stability?," Working Papers 2002_4, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Mar 2002.
    15. A. Robert Nobay & David A. Peel, 2003. "Optimal Discretionary Monetary Policy in a Model of Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(489), pages 657-665, July.
    16. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2004. "The inflation bias when the central bank targets the natural rate of unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 91-107, February.
    17. Dolado, Juan J. & Maria-Dolores, Ramon & Naveira, Manuel, 2005. "Are monetary-policy reaction functions asymmetric?: The role of nonlinearity in the Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 485-503, February.
    18. Paolo Surico, 2003. "Asymmetric Reaction Functions for the Euro Area," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 44-57.
    19. Özer Karagedikli & Kirdan Lees, 2004. "Do inflation targeting central banks behave asymmetrically? Evidence from Australia and New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    20. Bruinshoofd, Allard & Candelon, Bertrand, 2005. "Nonlinear monetary policy in Europe: fact or myth?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 399-403, March.
    21. Paolo Surico, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Nonlinear Policy Rules: The Case of Asymmetric Preferences (new title: The Fed's monetary policy rule and U.S. inflation: The case of asymmetric preferences)," CESifo Working Paper Series 1280, CESifo Group Munich.
    22. Alex Cukierman & V. Anton Muscatelli, 2002. "Do Central Banks have Precautionary Demands for Expansions and for Price Stability? - Theory and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 764, CESifo Group Munich.
    23. Alvaro Aguiar & Manuel M.F. Martins, 2005. "The Preferences of the Euro Area Monetary Policy-maker," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 221-250, June.
    24. Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Banking in Theory and Practice," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522608, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2015. "Central banks’ inflation forecasts under asymmetric loss: Evidence from four Latin-American countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 66-70.
    2. Pei-Fen Chen & Jhih-Hong Zeng & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Diversification–Profitability Linkage in Banking: Evidences from Emerging Market Economies," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(4), pages 576-597, December.
    3. Sznajderska, Anna, 2014. "Asymmetric effects in the Polish monetary policy rule," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 547-556.
    4. Vitor M. Carvalho & Manuel M. F. Martins, 2011. "Macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidations in a DSGE model for the Euro Area: does composition matter?," FEP Working Papers 421, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    5. Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan & Jan‐Egbert Sturm, 2011. "Does money matter in the ECB strategy? New evidence based on ECB communication," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 16-31, January.
    6. repec:udc:esteco:v:44:y:2017:i:2:p:97-124 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Gerdrup, Karsten & Jore, Anne Sofie & Smith, Christie & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, 2011. "Weights and pools for a Norwegian density combination," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 61-76, January.
    8. Doyle, Matthew & Falk, Barry, 2010. "Do asymmetric central bank preferences help explain observed inflation outcomes?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 527-540, June.
    9. repec:udc:esteco:v:44:y:2017:i:2:p:223-250 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2007. "Monetary Policy and the Hybrid Phillips Curve," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2007/12, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University.
    11. Ikeda, Taro, 2010. "Time-varying asymmetries in central bank preferences: The case of the ECB," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1054-1066, December.
    12. Vitor Carvalho & Manuel M. F. Martins, 2011. "Investment and output effects of fiscal consolidations in a new-Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro Area: composition matters?," EcoMod2011 3246, EcoMod.
    13. Hamza Bennani, 2012. "National influences inside the ECB: an assessment from central bankers' statements," Working Papers hal-00992646, HAL.
    14. Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2006. "Does money matter in the ECB strategy?," KOF Working papers 06-125, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    15. Paloviita, Maritta & Haavio, Markus & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Kilponen, Juha, 2017. "What does “below, but close to, two percent” mean? Assessing the ECB’s reaction function with real time data," Research Discussion Papers 29/2017, Bank of Finland.
    16. Lee, Jim, 2009. "Evaluating monetary policy of the euro area with cross-country heterogeneity: Evidence from a New Keynesian model," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 325-343, December.
    17. Kim, Sokwon & Seo, Byeongseon, 2008. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Reaction with Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences : Some Evidence for Korea," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 49(2), pages 91-108, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:40:y:2008:i:13:p:1651-1667. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.