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Does money matter in the ECB strategy? New evidence based on ECB communication

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  • Helge Berger
  • Jakob de Haan
  • Jan‐Egbert Sturm

Abstract

We examine the role of money in the policies of the ECB, using introductory statements of the ECB President at the monthly press conferences during 1999-2004. Over time, the relative amount of words devoted to the monetary analysis has decreased. Our analysis of indicators of the monetary policy stance suggests that developments in the monetary sector, while somewhat more important in the later half of the sample, only played a minor role most of the time. Our estimates of ECB interest rate decisions suggest that the ECB's words (monetary-sector based policy intensions) are not an important determinant of its actions.
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Suggested Citation

  • Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan & Jan‐Egbert Sturm, 2011. "Does money matter in the ECB strategy? New evidence based on ECB communication," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 16-31, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:16:y:2011:i:1:p:16-31
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    Cited by:

    1. Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2009. "The communication policy of the European Central Bank: An overview of the first decade," DNB Working Papers 212, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    2. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    3. C.Jardet & A. Monks, 2014. "Euro Area monetary policy shocks: impact on financial asset prices during the crisis?," Working papers 512, Banque de France.
    4. Giancarlo Corsetti & Michael P. Devereux & John Hassler & Tim Jenkinson & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Xavier Vives, 2009. "Chapter 1: The European Economy: Macroeconomic Outlook and Policy," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo Group Munich, vol. 0, pages 11-57, February.
    5. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca Nicolay, 2015. "Central bank’s perception on inflation and inflation expectations of experts: Empirical evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1142-1158, November.
    6. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2009. "Explaining Monetary Policy in Press Conferences," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 42-84, June.
    7. repec:bpj:bejmac:v:17:y:2017:i:1:p:41:n:7 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Caldas M., Gabriel, 2012. "Financial market reaction to central bank monetary policy communications under an inflation- targeting regime: the case of Brazil," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    9. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob Haan, 2011. "Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? New evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 41-58, April.
    10. Berger, Helge & Harjes, Thomas & Stavrev, Emil, 2008. "The ECB's monetary analysis revisited," Discussion Papers 2008/14, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    11. Setzer, Ralph & van den Noord, Paul & Wolff, Guntram B., 2011. "Heterogeneity in money holdings across euro area countries: The role of housing," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 764-780.
    12. Hüning, Hendrik, 2017. "Asset market response to monetary policy news from SNB press releases," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 160-177.
    13. Hubert Paul, 2017. "Qualitative and quantitative central bank communication and inflation expectations," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-41, January.
    14. Muchlinski, Elke, 2010. "Metaphern, Begriffe und Bedeutungen: Das Beispiel internationale monetäre Institutionen," Discussion Papers 2010/14, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    15. repec:eee:jimfin:v:79:y:2017:i:c:p:136-156 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Islas C., Alejandro & Cortez, Willy Walter, 2012. "Mexico: what is the impact of monetary policy on unemployment rates?," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    17. Hüning, Hendrik, 2016. "Asset market response to monetary policy news from SNB press releases," HWWI Research Papers 177, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    18. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Have monetary data releases helped markets to predict the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank?," Working Paper Series 1926, European Central Bank.
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    21. Aleš Bulíř & Martin Čihák & Kateřina Šmídková, 2013. "Writing Clearly: The ECB 's Monetary Policy Communication," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 14(1), pages 50-72, February.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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