Does Money Matter in the ECB Strategy? New Evidence Based on ECB Communication
We examine the role of money in the policies of the ECB, using introductory statements of the ECB President at the monthly press conferences during 1999-2004. Over time, the relative amount of words devoted to the monetary analysis has decreased. Our analysis of indicators of the monetary policy stance suggests that developments in the monetary sector, while somewhat more important in the later half of the sample, only played a minor role most of the time. Our estimates of ECB interest rate decisions suggest that the ECB’s words (monetary-sector based policy intensions) are not an important determinant of its actions.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +41 44 632 42 39
Fax: +41 44 632 12 18
Web page: http://www.kof.ethz.ch
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Francisco Javier Ruge-Murcia, 2001.
"Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences,"
IMF Working Papers
01/161, International Monetary Fund.
- Ruge-Murcia, F.J., 2001. "Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences," Cahiers de recherche 2001-04, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2001. "Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0106, Banco de Espa�a.
- RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco .J., 2001. "Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences," Cahiers de recherche 2001-04, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Friedrich Heinemann & Katrin Ullrich, 2007.
"Does it Pay to Watch Central Bankers’ Lips? The Information Content of ECB Wording,"
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES),
Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 143(II), pages 155-185, June.
- Heinemann, Friedrich & Ullrich, Katrin, 2005. "Does it Pay to Watch Central Bankers' Lips? The Information Content of ECB Wording," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-70, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Gerlach, Stefan, 2003.
"Recession aversion, output and the Kydland-Prescott Barro-Gordon model,"
Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 389-394, December.
- Gerlach, Stefan, 2003. "Recession Aversion, Output and the Kydland-Prescott Barro-Gordon Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 3687, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Otmar Issing, 2001. "The EURO Area and the single monetary policy," Working Papers 44, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Charles Goodhart, 1998. "Central Bankers and Uncertainty," FMG Special Papers sp106, Financial Markets Group.
- Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-55, December.
- Alex Cukierman & Anton Muscatelli, 2001. "Do Central Banks have Precautionary Demands for Expansions and for Price Stability?," Working Papers 2002_4, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Mar 2002.
- Manuel M F Martins & Alvaro Aguiar, 2005.
"Testing for Asymmetries in the Preferences of the Euro-Area Monetary Policymaker,"
Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005
41, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Alvaro Aguiar & Manuel Martins, 2008. "Testing for asymmetries in the preferences of the euro-area monetary policymaker," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(13), pages 1651-1667.
- Alvaro Aguiar & Manuel M. F. Martins, 2005. "Testing for Asymmetries in the Preferences of the Euro-Area Monetary Policymaker," FEP Working Papers 182, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
- RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2002.
"Does the Barro-Gordon Model Explain the Behavior of US Inflation? a Reexamination of the Empirical Evidence,"
Cahiers de recherche
2002-07, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2003. "Does the Barro-Gordon model explain the behavior of US inflation? A reexamination of the empirical evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1375-1390, September.
- Albert Jaeger, 2003. "The ECB'S Money Pillar: An Assessment," IMF Working Papers 03/82, International Monetary Fund.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1995.
"Approximate Asymptotic P-Values for Structural Change Tests,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
297., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
- Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2005. "Is ECB Communication Effective?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0682, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Stefan Gerlach, 2004. "The two pillars of the European Central Bank," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 19(40), pages 389-439, October.
- Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004.
"Communication and exchange rate policy,"
Working Paper Series
0363, European Central Bank.
- David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2006.
"Look who's talking: ECB communication during the first years of EMU,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 219-228.
- David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2004. "Look Who’s Talking: ECB Communication during the First Years of EMU," CESifo Working Paper Series 1263, CESifo Group Munich.
- David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2004. "Look Who's Talking: ECB communication during the first years of EMU," DNB Working Papers 007, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Banking in Theory and Practice," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522608, June.
- Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994.
"Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative,"
Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
- Tom Doan, . "APBREAKTEST: RATS procedure to implement Andrews-Ploberger Structural Break Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00006, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "APGRADIENTTEST: RATS procedure to perform Andrews-Ploberger Structural Break Test for GARCH/Maximum Likelihood," Statistical Software Components RTS00007, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "REGHBREAK: RATS procedure to perform structural break test with bootstrapped p-values," Statistical Software Components RTS00176, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kai Carstensen & Roberta Colavecchio, 2004. "Did the Revision of the ECB Monetary Policy Strategy Affect the Reaction Function?," Kiel Working Papers 1221, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Jansen, David-Jan & De Haan, Jakob, 2005. "Talking heads: the effects of ECB statements on the euro-dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 343-361, March.
- Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
- Cukierman, Alex & Gerlach, Stefan, 2003.
"The Inflation Bias Revisited: Theory and Some International Evidence,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3761, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alex Cukierman & Stefan Gerlach, 2003. "The inflation bias revisited: theory and some international evidence," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(5), pages 541-565, 09.
- Jakob de Haan & Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger & Sandra Waller, 2005. "The European Central Bank: Credibility, Transparency, and Centralization," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262042266, June.
- Issing, Otmar, 2001. "The Euro Area and the Single Monetary Policy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 277-88, October.
- Jakob de Haan & Sylvester C.W. Eijffinger, 2000. "The Democratic Accountability of the European Central Bank: A Comment on Two Fairy-tales," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 393-407, 09.
- Cukierman, A., 1999. "The Inflation Bias Result Revisited," Papers 38-99, Tel Aviv.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:06-125. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.