Does it Pay to Watch Central Bankers' Lips? The Information Content of ECB Wording
In this analysis, the informational content of central bank rhetoric is assessed based on the experience with the ECB since 1999. Among the ECB?s communication channels we focus on the monthly press conferences. Based on a counting of certain signal words we construct a wording indicator reflecting the ?hawkishness? of monetary rhetorics. For the construction, we develop an objective algorithm representing a learning process of ECB observers. We then integrate this indicator into a standard Taylor type ordered probit model for the explanation of the interest rate. We show that the wording indicator can improve the model?s fit when added to the standard explanatory variables. However, a model based solely on this indicator performs worse than the baseline. The results are confirmed by out of sample analysis where the determination of the wording indicators? weights is based on the early ECB period which, subsequently, is excluded from the tests. Our conclusion is that linguistic analysis can improve but not substitute more rigorous forecasting techniques based on hard economic data.
|Date of creation:||2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: L 7,1; D - 68161 Mannheim|
Web page: http://www.zew.de/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Faust Jon & Swanson Eric T & Wright Jonathan H, 2004. "Do Federal Reserve Policy Surprises Reveal Superior Information about the Economy?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-31, October.
- Donald L. Kohn & Brian P. Sack, 2003. "Central bank talk: does it matter and why?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- John P. Judd & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1998. "Taylor's rule and the Fed, 1970-1997," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
- Edward Nelson, 2000.
"UK monetary policy 1972-97: a guide using Taylor rules,"
Bank of England working papers
120, Bank of England.
- Nelson, Edward, 2001. "UK Monetary Policy 1972-97: A Guide Using Taylor Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 2931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2006.
"Look who's talking: ECB communication during the first years of EMU,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 219-228.
- David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2004. "Look Who's Talking: ECB communication during the first years of EMU," DNB Working Papers 007, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003.
"What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
- Lars E.O. Svensson, 2002. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Working Papers 118, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," NBER Working Papers 9421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998.
"Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
- Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 97-32, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fratzscher, Marcel, 2008. "Communication and exchange rate policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1651-1672, December.
- Kevin Ross, 2002. "Market Predictability of ECB Policy Decisions; A Comparative Examination," IMF Working Papers 02/233, International Monetary Fund.
- Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "Communication and decision-making by central bank committees: different strategies, same effectiveness?," Working Paper Series 488, European Central Bank.
- Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L & Valente, Giorgio, 2005.
"Federal Funds Rate Prediction,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 449-471, June.
- Sarno, Lucio & Daniel l Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2003. "Federal Funds Rate Prediction," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 183, Royal Economic Society.
- Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2004. "Federal funds rate prediction," Working Papers 2002-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Giorgio Valente & Daniel Thornton & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Federal Funds Rate Prediction," Working Papers wp04-12, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L & Valente, Giorgio, 2004. "Federal Funds Rate Prediction," CEPR Discussion Papers 4587, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kai Carstensen, 2006. "Estimating the ECB Policy Reaction Function," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7, pages 1-34, February.
- Friedrich Heinemann & Felix P. Huefner, 2004.
"Is The View From The Eurotower Purely European? - National Divergence And Ecb Interest Rate Policy,"
Scottish Journal of Political Economy,
Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(4), pages 544-558, September.
- Heinemann, Friedrich & Huefner, Felix P., 2002. "Is the View from the Eurotower Purely European? National Divergence and ECB Interest Rate Policy," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-69, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Huefner, Felix P & Friedrich Heinemann, 2003. "Is the View from the Eurotower Purely European? - National Divergence and ECB Interest Rate Policy," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 110, Royal Economic Society.
- Rachel Reeves & Michael Sawicki, 2005. "Do financial markets react to Bank of England communication?," Discussion Papers 15, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
- Guthrie, Graeme & Wright, Julian, 2000. "Open mouth operations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 489-516, October.
- Gaspar, Vitor & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2001.
"The ECB Monetary Policy Strategy and the Money Market,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 325-342, October.
- Vítor Gaspar & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Jorge Sicilia, 2001. "The ECB monetary policy strategy and the money market," Working Papers 47, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Gaspar, Vítor & Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2001. "The ECB monetary policy strategy and the money market," Working Paper Series 0069, European Central Bank.
- Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2005. "The Importance of the Wording of the ECB," CEP Discussion Papers dp0694, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Rosa, Carlo & Verga, Giovanni, 2005. "The importance of the wording of the ECB," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19888, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004. "The Euribor Futures Market: Efficiency and the Impact of ECB Policy Announcements," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, March.
- Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1110, CESifo Group Munich.
- Fourcans, Andre & Vranceanu, Radu, 2004. "The ECB interest rate rule under the Duisenberg presidency," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 579-595, September.
- Fritz Breuss, 2002. "Was ECB's monetary policy optimal?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(3), pages 298-319, September.
- Gerlach, Stefan, 2004. "Interest Rate Setting by the ECB: Words and Deeds," CEPR Discussion Papers 4775, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2006. "Does money matter in the ECB strategy?," KOF Working papers 06-125, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Fritz Breuss, 2002. "Was ECB's Monetary Policy Optimal?," WIFO Working Papers 173, WIFO.
- Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
- Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2004. "Is the MPC's Voting Record Informative about Future UK Monetary Policy?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(2), pages 299-313, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:4553. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.