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Taylor Rules for the ECB using Consensus Data

  • Janko Gorter
  • Jan Jacobs
  • Jakob de Haan

We estimate Taylor rules for the euro area using Consensus expectations for inflation and output growth and we compare these estimates with more conventional specifications in which actual outcomes are used. According to the model with Consensus data, the ECB takes expected inflation and expected output growth into account in setting interest rates, while in the more conventional model specification the coefficient of inflation is not significantly different from zero. Only when using survey data we find that the ECB's policy has been stabilizing. Finally, using a framework suggested by English et al. (2003), we find support for both policy inertia and serially correlated errors in ECB Taylor rules.

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Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 160.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:160
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  13. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 1999. "The Taylor Rule and Interest Rates in the EMU Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 2271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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