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Taylor Rules for the ECB using Consensus Data

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  • Janko Gorter
  • Jan Jacobs
  • Jakob de Haan

Abstract

We estimate Taylor rules for the euro area using Consensus expectations for inflation and output growth and we compare these estimates with more conventional specifications in which actual outcomes are used. According to the model with Consensus data, the ECB takes expected inflation and expected output growth into account in setting interest rates, while in the more conventional model specification the coefficient of inflation is not significantly different from zero. Only when using survey data we find that the ECB's policy has been stabilizing. Finally, using a framework suggested by English et al. (2003), we find support for both policy inertia and serially correlated errors in ECB Taylor rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Janko Gorter & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Taylor Rules for the ECB using Consensus Data," DNB Working Papers 160, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:160
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Thanassis Kazanas & Elias Tzavalis, 2011. "Unveiling the monetary policy rule in euro area," Working Papers 130, Bank of Greece.
    2. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008. "The Stress of Having a Single Monetary Policy in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 2251, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Aleksandra Halka, 2015. "Lessons from the crisis.Did central banks do their homework?," NBP Working Papers 224, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    4. Antonio Forte, 2010. "The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England: Is the Taylor Rule a useful benchmark for the last decade?," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 53(2), pages 1-31.
    5. Ignacy Święcicki & Jan J. Michałek, 2014. "Sources of difficulties in coordination of monetary and fiscal policies in the European Economic and Monetary Union," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 39.
    6. Aleksandra Halka, 2016. "How the central bank’s reaction function in small open economies evolved during the crisis," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(4), pages 301-318.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taylor rule; ECB; real-time data; policy inertia; serial correlation;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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