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No Linealidades en la Regla de Política Monetaria del Banco Central de Chile: Una Evidencia Empírica

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Gran parte de la literatura relacionada con las funciones de reacción del Banco Central ha estimado funciones de reacción lineales, asumiendo preferencias cuadráticas para el Banco Central y ecuaciones de oferta y demanda agregadas lineales. Sin embargo, en la práctica estos supuestos pueden ser ampliamente discutidos. Por esta razón, la literatura más moderna en el estudio de las funciones de reacción se ha centrado en el uso de preferencias asimétricas para el Banco Central y/o curvas de Phillips no lineales, asumiendo formas paramétricas particulares para modelar dichas funciones. Esto podría llevar a inferencias erróneas si dichas especificaciones son incorrectas. El estudio de las funciones de reacción no lineales para el caso de Chile aún no ha recibido mucha atención, por lo que este artículo ha tratado de contribuir buscando evidencia que sustente preferencias no lineales. Para ello, se usó el enfoque flexible de inferencia no lineal propuesto por Hamilton (2001). Se encontró que, si bien la respuesta del Banco Central es lineal en relación a los desvíos de la inflación respecto a la meta, existe evidencia de no linealidad respecto al ciclo económico.

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Paper provided by Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines in its series ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers with number inv173.

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Length: 34 pages.
Date of creation: Jun 2006
Handle: RePEc:ila:ilades:inv173
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