The Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Economic Growth: A MRS-IV Approach
In this paper, we propose an analytical framework to explore the level and volatility effects of inflation on the output gap. Using quarterly US data over 1977:q2-2009:q4, we then examine the empirical implications of the model by implementing an instrumental variables Markov regime switching approach. We show that inflation uncertainty has a negative and regime dependent impact on the output gap but the level of inflation does not have any such e ect. Our empirical investigation also provides evidence that the US economy is moving towards a period of turmoil before the recent financial crisis was imminent. The results are robust to the use of alternative measures of inflation uncertainty.
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