IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bof/bofrdp/2017_029.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What does “below, but close to, two percent” mean? Assessing the ECB’s reaction function with real time data

Author

Listed:
  • Paloviita, Maritta
  • Haavio, Markus
  • Jalasjoki, Pirkka
  • Kilponen, Juha

Abstract

We estimate the ECB’s monetary policy reaction function by using real time Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projection data, which are presented to the ECB’s Governing Council when it assesses the monetary policy stance in the euro area. Alternative specifications of the reaction function account for a possible credibility loss due to persistent deviations of past inflation from the ECB’s inflation target. The results provide support for two alternative interpretations of the definition of price stability. First, the ECB dislikes inflation rates above two percent more than rates below two percent. Second, the ECB policy responses to past inflation gaps are symmetric with respect to a target of 1.6 - 1.7 percent. The out-of-sample predictions of the reaction function based on the second interpretation of the definition of price stability track well an estimated shadow interest rate during the zero lower bound period.

Suggested Citation

  • Paloviita, Maritta & Haavio, Markus & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Kilponen, Juha, 2017. "What does “below, but close to, two percent” mean? Assessing the ECB’s reaction function with real time data," Research Discussion Papers 29/2017, Bank of Finland.
  • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2017_029
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/bitstream/123456789/14932/1/BoF_DP_1729.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paolo Surico, 2003. "Asymmetric Reaction Functions for the Euro Area," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 44-57.
    2. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    3. Ikeda, Taro, 2010. "Time-varying asymmetries in central bank preferences: The case of the ECB," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1054-1066, December.
    4. Charemza, Wojciech & Ladley, Daniel, 2016. "Central banks’ forecasts and their bias: Evidence, effects and explanation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 804-817.
    5. Alvaro Aguiar & Manuel Martins, 2008. "Testing for asymmetries in the preferences of the euro-area monetary policymaker," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(13), pages 1651-1667.
    6. Stefan Gerlach & John Lewis, 2014. "ECB Reaction Functions and the Crisis of 2008," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 137-158, March.
    7. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob Haan, 2011. "Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? New evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 41-58, April.
    8. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "Inflation targeting, credibility, and non-linear Taylor rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 30-45.
    9. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2017. "Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: Recent evidence based on survey data," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 52-73.
    10. Lucia Alessi & Eric Ghysels & Luca Onorante & Richard Peach & Simon Potter, 2014. "Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasting During the Global Financial Crisis: The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Experiences," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 483-500, October.
    11. Paolo Surico, 2007. "The Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 109(1), pages 115-135, March.
    12. Kortela, Tomi, 2016. "A shadow rate model with time-varying lower bound of interest rates," Research Discussion Papers 19/2016, Bank of Finland.
    13. Janko Gorter & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2008. "Taylor Rules for the ECB using Expectations Data," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(3), pages 473-488, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2017_029. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Minna Nyman). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bofgvfi.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.