IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Effective monetary policy conservatism: A comparison of 11 OECD countries

  • Berlemann, Michael
  • Hilscher, Kai

Modern monetary economists argue that institutional aspects such as central bank independence and central bank conservatism play an important role for the performance of an economy. In order to be able to compare the effects of different institutions it is necessary to measure both central bank independence and conservatism. In this paper we propose a new methodology of uncovering the degree of effective monetary policy conservatism from observed central bank behavior. Employing a variant of the Barro-Gordon-model we derive an optimal prime rate reaction function and show that more effectively conservative monetary policy tends to react less active to shocks to the real economy. In order to illustrate the proposed methodology we then estimate a common prime rate reaction function for a sample of 11 central banks in a panel setting and allow the reaction to real disturbances to differ between countries.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) in its series HWWI Research Papers with number 2-21.

in new window

Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:2-21
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Heimhuder Str. 71, D-20148 Hamburg

Phone: +49 (0)40 34 05 76 - 0
Fax: +49 (0)40 34 05 76 - 776
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Forder, James, 1998. "Central Bank Independence--Conceptual Clarifications and Interim Assessment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(3), pages 307-34, July.
  2. Nicoletta Batini & Edward Nelson, 2001. "The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited," Discussion Papers 06, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  3. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Hoeberichts, M.M., 1996. "The Trade Off Between Central Bank Independence and Conservativeness," Discussion Paper 1996-44, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. Eduard Hochreiter & Tadeusz Kowalski, 2000. "Central Banks in European Emerging Market Economies in the 1990s," Working Papers 40, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  5. Cukierman, A. & Miller, G.P. & Neyapti, B., 2000. "Central Bank Rerform, Liberalization and Inflation in Transition Economies - an International Perspective," Papers 00-19, Tel Aviv.
  6. Christopher Adam & David Cobham, 2004. "Real-time output gaps in the estimation of Taylor rules: A red herring?," Economics Series Working Papers 218, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  7. Eijffinger, S. & van Rool, M. & Schaling, E., 1994. "Central Bank Independence: A Panel Data Approach," Papers 9493, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  8. Cukierman, A. & Lippi, F., 1998. "Central Bank Independence, Centralization of Wage Bargaining, Inflation and Unemployment - Theory and Some Evidence," Discussion Paper 1998-116, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  9. de Haan, J. & Amtenbrink, F. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 1998. "Accountability of Central Banks : Aspects and Quantification," Discussion Paper 1998-54, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  10. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Schaling, E., 1992. "Central bank independence : Criteria and indices," Research Memorandum FEW 548, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  11. Andreas Billmeier, 2004. "Ghostbusting; Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?," IMF Working Papers 04/146, International Monetary Fund.
  12. S. Eijffinger & M. Van Keulen, 1995. "Central bank independence in another eleven countries," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 48(192), pages 39-81.
  13. Michael Berlemann, 2005. "Time inconsistency of monetary policy: Empirical evidence from polls," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 1-15, July.
  14. Helge Berger & Ulrich Woitek, 2005. "Does Conservatism Matter? A Time-Series Approach to Central Bank Behaviour," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 745-766, 07.
  15. Loungani, Prakash & Sheets, Nathan, 1997. "Central Bank Independence, Inflation, and Growth in Transition Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 381-99, August.
  16. Francesco Lippi, 1999. "Median Voter Preferences, Central Bank Independence and Conservatism," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 351, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  17. Nelson, Edward, 2001. "UK Monetary Policy 1972-97: A Guide Using Taylor Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 2931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. M. Berlemann & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2003. "Lending of First Versus Lending of Last Resort: The Bulgarian Financial Crisis of 1996/1997," Post-Print halshs-00260241, HAL.
  19. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob de Haan, 2001. "Inflation in Developing Countries: Does Central Bank Independence Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 511, CESifo Group Munich.
  20. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2006. "Does ECB Communication Help in Predicting its Interest Rate Decisions?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1804, CESifo Group Munich.
  21. RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2002. "Does the Barro-Gordon Model Explain the Behavior of US Inflation? a Reexamination of the Empirical Evidence," Cahiers de recherche 2002-07, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  22. Dvorsky, Sandra, 2000. "Measuring central bank independence in selected transition countries and the disinflation process," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2000, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  23. John S. Lapp & Douglas K. Pearce & Surachit Laksanasut, 2003. "The Predictability of FOMC Decisions: Evidence from the Volcker and Greenspan Chairmanships," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 312-327, October.
  24. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 353-98, September.
  25. repec:dgr:rugccs:200101 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. Adam S. Posen, 1995. "Declarations Are Not Enough: Financial Sector Sources of Central Bank Independence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 253-274 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. James Forder, 2004. "The theory of credibility: confusions, limitations and dangers," Chapters, in: Neo-Liberal Economic Policy, chapter 2 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  28. Forder, James, 1996. "On the Assessment and Implementation of 'Institutional' Remedies," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 39-51, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:2-21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.