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Does ECB Communication Help in Predicting its Interest Rate Decisions?

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  • David-Jan Jansen
  • Jakob de Haan

Abstract

We examine the usefulness of communication by the European Central Bank for predicting its interest rate decisions. We use ordered probit models based on the Taylor rule which we estimate using statements by ECB officials as well as macroeconomic variables. Statements by ECB officials on the main refinancing rate and future inflation are significantly related to ECB decisions. However, an out-of-sample evaluation shows that communication-based models do not outperform models based on macroeconomic data in predicting decisions. Both sets of models only accurately predict decisions to leave interest rates unchanged.

Suggested Citation

  • David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2006. "Does ECB Communication Help in Predicting its Interest Rate Decisions?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1804, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1804
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp1804.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hu, Ling & Phillips, Peter C. B., 2004. "Nonstationary discrete choice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 103-138, May.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
    3. Coenen, Gunter & Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 975-1006, May.
    4. John S. Lapp & Douglas K. Pearce & Surachit Laksanasut, 2003. "The Predictability of FOMC Decisions: Evidence from the Volcker and Greenspan Chairmanships," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 312-327, October.
    5. Gerlach, Stefan, 2004. "Interest Rate Setting by the ECB: Words and Deeds," CEPR Discussion Papers 4775, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2005. "Is ECB Communication Effective?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0682, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    7. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "Communication and decision-making by central bank committees: different strategies, same effectiveness?," Working Paper Series 488, European Central Bank.
    8. Friedrich Heinemann & Katrin Ullrich, 2007. "Does it Pay to Watch Central Bankers’ Lips? The Information Content of ECB Wording," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 143(II), pages 155-185, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pablo Pincheira & Mauricio Calani, 2010. "Communicational Bias in Monetary Policy: Can Words Forecast Deeds?," ECONOMIA JOURNAL, THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2010), pages 103-152, August.
    2. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    3. Berlemann, Michael & Hielscher, Kai, 2011. "A Time-varying Indicator of Effective Monetary Policy Conservatism," Working Paper 112/2011, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
    4. Jakob Haan, 2008. "The effect of ECB communication on interest rates: An assessment," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 375-398, December.
    5. Berlemann, Michael & Hilscher, Kai, 2010. "Effective monetary policy conservatism: A comparison of 11 OECD countries," HWWI Research Papers 2-21, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    6. Michael Berlemann & Kai Hielscher, 2016. "Measuring Effective Monetary Policy Conservatism of Central Banks: A Dynamic Approach," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 17(1), pages 105-132, May.
    7. Michael Berlemann & Kai Hielscher, 2012. "Output sensitivity of monetary policy and macroeconomic performance," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(15), pages 1505-1509, October.
    8. Grammig, Joachim & Kehrle, Kerstin, 2008. "A new marked point process model for the federal funds rate target: Methodology and forecast evaluation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2370-2396, July.
    9. Michael Berlemann & Kai Hielscher, 2013. "Effective Monetary Policy Conservatism: A Comparison of 13 OECD Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(3), pages 267-290, July.
    10. Berlemann, Michael & Hielscher, Kai, 2009. "Measuring Effective Monetary Policy Conservatism," Working Paper 89/2009, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ECB communication; interest rate decision; Taylor rule; ordered probit models;

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