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Risk assessment on euro area government bond markets – The role of governance

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens

Abstract

Since the announcement of the outright monetary transactions program (OMT) government bond yield spreads have decreased substantially, but have not fallen to pre-crisis levels. This paper argues that the debt-to-GDP ratio has become less relevant as a determinant for government bond spreads, while financial markets have become more concerned about the willingness and the capability to cooperate with the institutions that conduct the adjustment programs since the announcement of OMT. The paper links the willingness and the capability to cooperate to political stability and the quality of governance, for which the indicators are available from the World Bank. By means of a time-varying coefficient approach it can be shown that the coefficient for a composite World Bank indicator on the quality of governance has outpaced other possible determinants of government bond spreads since the announcement of OMT.

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2017. "Risk assessment on euro area government bond markets – The role of governance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 104-117.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:73:y:2017:i:pa:p:104-117
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.01.005
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    Cited by:

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    2. Petr Blížkovský & Luboš Střelec & Kateřina Blížkovská, 2020. "The "Three-D-Relationship": Do Democracy and Development Lead to Increased Debt?," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 21-36.
    3. Bernoth Kerstin & Dietz Sara, 2023. "Selective Bond Purchases – May the ECB Chose Winners and Losers?," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 111-118, June.
    4. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2021. "Quantifying sovereign risk in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 76-96.
    5. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Manish K. Singh, 2018. "“Incorporating creditors' seniority into contingent claim models:Application to peripheral euro area countries”," IREA Working Papers 201803, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2018.
    6. Wojciech Grabowski & Ewa Stawasz-Grabowska, 2019. "News Releases, Credit Rating Announcements, and Anti-Crisis Measures as Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads in the Peripheral Euro-Area Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(2), pages 149-173, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro area; Bond spreads; Debt crisis; OMT; Time-varying coefficients; Good governance; Default risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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