Determinants of sovereign yield spreads during the Euro-crisis: Fundamental factors versus systemic risk
The intensity of the Euro-crisis was reflected by significant increases of sovereign bond yields in the troubled countries. This has launched a hot debate whether this increase can solely be attributed to fundamental factors like e.g. rescue programmes, rising budget deficits, deteriorating economic prospects or changes in the rating-status of the country, or whether a part of these growing yields is likely to represent a systemic risk, i.e. that one or more countries will drop out of the European Monetary Union and reintroduce their own national currencies. This empirical analysis explores whether such systemic risk is present in the yield spreads of nine Euro area countries by using a novel market based indicator from the virtual prediction market Intrade. Our empirical results suggest that beside fundamental factors a systemic risk component played a role in determination of sovereign yields. Our empirical measure of the systemic component in sovereign yields can be related to the expected change of the newly introduced national currency. Accordingly to that, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy are expected to depreciate their currency while the others would appreciate after a withdrawal from the Euro area. Risk premia that are related to fears of the reversibility of the Euro are unacceptable, and they need to be addressed in a fundamental manner. (ECB-President Mario Draghi, August 2012) Es gibt fundamentale Zweifel der Märkte an der Sicherheit der Währungsunion. (Bundesbankpräsident Jens Weidmann, July 2012)
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Statistisches Bundesamt, Gustav-Stresemann-Ring 11, 65180 Wiesbaden|
Phone: +49 611 - 752390
Fax: +49 611 - 752538
Web page: http://www.sachverstaendigenrat-wirtschaft.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Haugh & Patrice Ollivaud & David Turner, 2009. "What Drives Sovereign Risk Premiums?: An Analysis of Recent Evidence from the Euro Area," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 718, OECD Publishing.
- Dötz, Niko & Fischer, Christoph, 2010. "What can EMU countries' sovereign bond spreads tell us about market perceptions of default probabilities during the recent financial crisis?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger & Wolswijk, Guido, 2011.
"Government bond risk premiums in the EU revisited: The impact of the financial crisis,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 36-43, March.
- Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolswijk, Guido, 2009. "Government Bond Risk Premiums in the EU revisited: The Impact of the Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolswijk, Guido, 2010. "Government bond risk premiums in the EU revisited: the impact of the financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1152, European Central Bank.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2012. "Sovereign risk premiums in the European government bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 975-995.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & Hagen, Jürgen von & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2006. "Sovereign Risk Premiums in the European Government Bond Market," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 151, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
- Christian Aßmann & Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2012. "Determinants of government bond spreads in the euro area: in good times as in bad," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 341-356, August.
- Aßmann, Christian & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2009. "Determinants of government bond spreads in the Euro Area: in good times as in bad," Kiel Working Papers 1548, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Bernoth, Kerstin & Erdogan, Burcu, 2012. "Sovereign bond yield spreads: A time-varying coefficient approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 639-656.
- Kerstin Bernoth & Burcu Erdogan, 2010. "Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads: A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1078, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & Erdogan, Burcu, 2010. "Sovereign bond yield spreads: a time-varying coefficient approach," Discussion Papers 289, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
- Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2009. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area Bond Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 925-957, March.
- Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2006. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence From the Euro-Area Bond Market," NBER Working Papers 12376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Paul Hallwood, C. & MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 2000. "Realignment expectations and the US dollar, 1890-1897: Was there a 'Peso problem'?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 605-620, December.
- Antonio Di Cesare & Giuseppe Grande & Michele Manna & Marco Taboga, 2012. "Recent estimates of sovereign risk premia for euro-area countries," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 128, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2012. "Sovereign spreads in the eurozone: which prospects for a Eurobond?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 27(70), pages 231-273, 04. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)