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Sovereign Yield Spreads During the Euro Crisis: Fundamental Factors Versus Redenomination Risk

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  • Jens Klose
  • Benjamin Weigert

Abstract

The intensity of the euro crisis has been reflected in significant increases in sovereign bond yields in the most troubled countries. This has triggered a debate over whether this increase can be attributed solely to fundamental factors or whether part of the increase represents redenomination risk that one or more countries will drop out of the European Monetary Union and reintroduce their own national currencies. Using a novel market-based indicator from the virtual prediction market Intrade, this paper explores whether such systemic risk is present in the yield spreads of nine euro-area countries. We find that redenomination risk has played a role in the determination of sovereign yields, and that this risk is related to the expected valuations of newly introduced currencies: those of Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy are expected to depreciate, while newly introduced currencies of other countries are expected to appreciate following a break-up of the EMU. "Risk premia that are related to fears of the reversibility of the Euro are unacceptable, and they need to be addressed in a fundamental manner." (ECB President Mario Draghi, August 2012)

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  • Jens Klose & Benjamin Weigert, 2014. "Sovereign Yield Spreads During the Euro Crisis: Fundamental Factors Versus Redenomination Risk," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 25-50, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:17:y:2014:i:1:p:25-50
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    Cited by:

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    2. Zaghini, Andrea, 2016. "Fragmentation and heterogeneity in the euro-area corporate bond market: Back to normal?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 51-61.
    3. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón & Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen, 2014. "An update on EMU sovereign yield spread drivers in times of crisis: A panel data analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 133-153.
    4. Baum, Christopher F. & Schäfer, Dorothea & Stephan, Andreas, 2016. "Credit rating agency downgrades and the Eurozone sovereign debt crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 117-131.
    5. Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2019. "Transmission of uncertainty shocks: Learning from heterogeneous responses on a panel of EU countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 62-83.
    6. Zaghini, Andrea, 2017. "A tale of fragmentation: Corporate funding in the euro-area bond market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 59-68.
    7. Jens Klose, 2019. "Measuring Redenomination Risks in the Euro Area - New Evidence from Survey Data," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201903, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    8. Borri, Nicola, 2019. "Redenomination-risk spillovers in the Eurozone," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 173-178.
    9. Zaghini, Andrea, 2019. "The CSPP at work: Yield heterogeneity and the portfolio rebalancing channel," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 282-297.
    10. Eichler, Stefan & Rövekamp, Ingmar, 2017. "Eurozone exit risk," CEPIE Working Papers 07/17, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE).
    11. Tholl, Johannes & Schwarzbach, Christoph & Pittalis, Sandro & von Mettenheim, Hans-Jörg, 2020. "Bank funding and the recent political development in Italy: What about redenomination risk?," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    12. Afonso, António & Tovar Jalles, João, 2019. "Quantitative easing and sovereign yield spreads: Euro-area time-varying evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 208-224.
    13. Steiner, Andreas & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2019. "Exit strategies, capital flight and speculative attacks: Europe's version of the trilemma," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 83-96.
    14. de Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2017. "Fundamentals versus market sentiments in the euro bond markets: implications for QE," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 85127, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Manish K. Singh, 2018. "“Incorporating creditors' seniority into contingent claim models:Application to peripheral euro area countries”," IREA Working Papers 201803, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2018.
    16. Samir Kadiric & Arthur Korus, 2019. "The effects of Brexit on credit spreads: Evidence from UK and Eurozone corporate bond markets," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 65-102, March.
    17. António Afonso & Frederico Silva Leal, 2017. "Sovereign yield spreads in the EMU: crisis and structural determinants," Working Papers Department of Economics 2017/09, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    18. Steiner, Andreas & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2019. "Exit strategies, capital flight and speculative attacks: Europe's version of the trilemma," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 83-96.
    19. Samir Kadiric, 2020. "The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: The impact of Brexit," EIIW Discussion paper disbei271, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    20. De Santis, Roberto A., 2015. "A measure of redenomination risk," Working Paper Series 1785, European Central Bank.

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