IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v56y2016icp133-147.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Causes and hazards of the euro area sovereign debt crisis: Pure and fundamentals-based contagion

Author

Listed:
  • Gómez-Puig, Marta
  • Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón

Abstract

This paper tries to contribute to the understanding of sovereign debt crises' pattern by empirically investigating the determinants of the recent euro area crisis to assess if its transmission was due to “pure” or “fundamentals-based” contagion. Using sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to Germany for a sample of ten central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012, we firstly examine the dynamic evolution of Granger-causality within the 90 pairs of yield spreads in our sample to detect episodes of contagion (associated with episodes of significant intensification in causality). Secondly, we make use of a logit model to explore whether there is evidence of “pure contagion” or “fundamentals-based contagion”, by trying to determine which factors might have been behind the detected contagion episodes. Our results suggest that contagion episodes are concentrated just after the inception of the EMU and matching the Global Financial Crisis, yielding more accurate and sensible indicators than those obtained from DCC-GARCH models used in prior studies. Indeed, they preceded the outburst of the Global Financial Crisis (causality intensification is detected from March 2008), and reached a peak during January–May 2011. Furthermore, they underline the coexistence of “pure” and “fundamentals-based contagion” during the recent European debt crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2016. "Causes and hazards of the euro area sovereign debt crisis: Pure and fundamentals-based contagion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 133-147.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:56:y:2016:i:c:p:133-147
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.03.017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999316300682
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caporin, Massimiliano & Pelizzon, Loriana & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rigobon, Roberto, 2018. "Measuring sovereign contagion in Europe," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 150-181.
    2. Kalbaska, A. & Gątkowski, M., 2012. "Eurozone sovereign contagion: Evidence from the CDS market (2005–2010)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 657-673.
    3. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
    4. Yu, Ip-Wing & Fung, Kang-Por & Tam, Chi-Sang, 2010. "Assessing financial market integration in Asia - Equity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2874-2885, December.
    5. Dungey, Mardi & Gajurel, Dinesh, 2014. "Equity market contagion during the global financial crisis: Evidence from the world's eight largest economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 161-177.
    6. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-484, December.
    7. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2014. "Causality and contagion in EMU sovereign debt markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 12-27.
    8. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    9. Jordi Mondria & Climent Quintana‐Domeque, 2013. "Financial Contagion and Attention Allocation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(568), pages 429-454, May.
    10. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    11. R. López & E. Navarro, 2013. "Interest rate and stock return volatility indices for the Eurozone. Investors' gauges of fear during the recent financial crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(18), pages 1419-1432, September.
    12. Mink, Mark & de Haan, Jakob, 2013. "Contagion during the Greek sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 102-113.
    13. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2005. "'Some contagion, some interdependence': More pitfalls in tests of financial contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1177-1199, December.
    14. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Teng, Kee Tuan, 2013. "Integration of world leaders and emerging powers into the Malaysian stock market: A DCC-MGARCH approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 333-342.
    15. Elliott, Graham, 1999. "Efficient Tests for a Unit Root When the Initial Observation Is Drawn from Its Unconditional Distribution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 767-783, August.
    16. Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads; Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 10/120, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 658-677.
    18. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2016. "Sovereign-bank linkages: Quantifying directional intensity of risk transfers in EMU countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 137-164.
    19. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D, 1997. "Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 68-73, January.
    20. Vito Polito & Michael Wickens, 2011. "Assessing the fiscal stance in the European Union and the United States, 1970–2011," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 26(68), pages 599-647, October.
    21. Thornton, Daniel L & Batten, Dallas S, 1985. "Lag-Length Selection and Tests of Granger Causality between Money and Income," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(2), pages 164-178, May.
    22. Erdal Atukeren, 2005. "Measuring the strength of cointegration and Granger-causality," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(14), pages 1607-1614.
    23. Masson, Paul, 1999. "Contagion:: macroeconomic models with multiple equilibria," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 587-602, August.
    24. Klose, Jens & Weigert, Benjamin, 2012. "Determinants of sovereign yield spreads during the Euro-crisis: Fundamental factors versus systemic risk," Working Papers 07/2012, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    25. Sohel Azad, A.S.M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Fang, Victor & Wickramanayake, Jayasinghe, 2015. "International swap market contagion and volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 355-371.
    26. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    27. Ludwig, Alexander, 2014. "A unified approach to investigate pure and wake-up-call contagion: Evidence from the Eurozone's first financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PA), pages 125-146.
    28. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Ten Things You Should Know about the Dynamic Conditional Correlation Representation," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(1), pages 1-12, June.
    29. Hoover,Kevin D., 2001. "Causality in Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521002882, October.
    30. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
    31. Morris Goldstein, 1998. "Asian Financial Crisis: Causes, Cures and Systemic Implications, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa55.
    32. André Lucas & Bernd Schwaab & Xin Zhang, 2014. "Conditional Euro Area Sovereign Default Risk," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 271-284, April.
    33. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
    34. Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2003. "A Primer on Financial Contagion," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 571-608, September.
    35. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Mike, 2012. "A model-based indicator of the fiscal stance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 526-551.
    36. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
    37. Moser, Thomas, 2003. "What Is International Financial Contagion?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 157-178, Summer.
    38. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    39. Craig S. Hakkio & William R. Keeton, 2009. "Financial stress: what is it, how can it be measured, and why does it matter?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-50.
    40. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2013. "Granger-causality in peripheral EMU public debt markets: A dynamic approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4627-4649.
    41. Philippas, Dionisis & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2013. "Putting the “C” into crisis: Contagion, correlations and copulas on EMU bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 161-176.
    42. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    43. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    44. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-273.
    45. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
    46. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven, 2016. "Information transmission between U.S. and China index futures markets: An asymmetric DCC GARCH approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 884-897.
    47. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    48. Hsiao, Cheng, 1981. "Autoregressive modelling and money-income causality detection," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 85-106.
    49. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    50. Tamás Bartus, 2005. "Estimation of marginal effects using margeff," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 5(3), pages 309-329, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:524-538 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Kliber, Agata & Płuciennik, Piotr, 2017. "Euro or not? Vulnerability of Czech and Slovak economies to regional and international turmoil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 313-323.
    3. Martin, Franck & Zhang, Jiangxingyun, 2017. "Modelling European sovereign bond yields with international portfolio effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 178-200.
    4. repec:eee:ememar:v:31:y:2017:i:c:p:96-115 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Alamá-Sabater, Luisa & Heid, Benedikt & Jiménez-Fernández, Eduardo & Márquez-Ramos, Laura, 2016. "What drives interdependence of FDI among host countries? The role of geographic proximity and similarity in public debt," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 466-474.
    6. repec:eee:intfin:v:53:y:2018:i:c:p:263-286 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Franck Martin & Jiangxingyun Zhang, 2017. "Impact of QE on European sovereign bond market," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 2017-04, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
    8. Kocsis, Zalan & Monostori, Zoltan, 2016. "The role of country-specific fundamentals in sovereign CDS spreads: Eastern European experiences," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 140-168.
    9. Fiala, Tomas & Havranek, Tomas, 2017. "The sources of contagion risk in a banking sector with foreign ownership," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 108-121.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign bond spreads; Contagion; Granger-causality; Time-varying approach; Euro area; Logit model;

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:56:y:2016:i:c:p:133-147. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.