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Conditional euro area sovereign default risk

  • Lucas, André

    ()

    (VU University Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute)

  • Schwaab, Bernd

    ()

    (European Central Bank)

  • Zhang, Xin

    ()

    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

We propose an empirical framework to assess the likelihood of joint and conditional sovereign default from observed CDS prices. Our model is based on a dynamic skewed-t distribution that captures all salient features of the data, including skewed and heavytailed changes in the price of CDS protection against sovereign default, as well as dynamic volatilities and correlations that ensure that uncertainty and risk dependence can increase in times of stress. We apply the framework to euro area sovereign CDS spreads during the euro area debt crisis. Our results reveal significant time-variation in distress dependence and spill-over effects for sovereign default risk. We investigate market perceptions of joint and conditional sovereign risk around announcements of Eurosystem asset purchases programs, and document a strong impact on joint risk.

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File URL: http://www.riksbank.se/Documents/Rapporter/Working_papers/2013/rap_wp269_130613.pdf
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Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 269.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 01 May 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0269
Contact details of provider: Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: 08 - 787 00 00
Fax: 08-21 05 31
Web page: http://www.riksbank.com/
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  1. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas, 2011. "A Dynamic Multivariate Heavy-Tailed Model for Time-Varying Volatilities and Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 552-563, October.
  2. Javier F. Mencia & Enrique Sentana, 2004. "Estimation and testing of dynamic models with generalised hyperbolic innovations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24742, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  3. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2007. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 114, Money Macro and Finance Research Group, revised 24 Apr 2007.
  4. Ying Chen & Wolfgang Härdle & Vladimir Spokoiny, 2006. "GHICA - Risk Analysis with GH Distributions and Independent Components," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-078, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  5. Adelchi Azzalini & Antonella Capitanio, 2003. "Distributions generated by perturbation of symmetry with emphasis on a multivariate skew "t"-distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(2), pages 367-389.
  6. Branco, Márcia D. & Dey, Dipak K., 2001. "A General Class of Multivariate Skew-Elliptical Distributions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 99-113, October.
  7. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, 05.
  8. Franses, Philip Hans & Lucas, Andre, 1998. "Outlier Detection in Cointegration Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 459-68, October.
  9. Kjersti Aas & Ingrid Hobaek Haff, 2006. "The Generalized Hyperbolic Skew Student's t-Distribution," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(2), pages 275-309.
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  13. Vivian Z. Yue, 2005. "Sovereign Default and Debt Renegotiation," 2005 Meeting Papers 138, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
  15. Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads; Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 10/120, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Boudt, Kris & Daníelsson, Jón & Laurent, Sébastien, 2013. "Robust forecasting of dynamic conditional correlation GARCH models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 244-257.
  17. BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, Sébastien, . "A new class of multivariate skew densities, with application to generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1793, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  18. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas, 2013. "Generalized Autoregressive Score Models With Applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 777-795, 08.
  19. Oren Sussman & Alexander Guembel, 2005. "Sovereign Debt Without Default Penalties," OFRC Working Papers Series 2005fe17, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  20. Alexander Guembel & Oren Sussman, 2009. "Sovereign Debt without Default Penalties," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(4), pages 1297-1320.
  21. Tirole, Jean, 2012. "Country Solidarity, Private Sector Involvement and the Contagion of Sovereign Crises," IDEI Working Papers 761, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Sep 2012.
  22. repec:tse:wpaper:26780 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Jun Pan & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2008. "Default and Recovery Implicit in the Term Structure of Sovereign "CDS" Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2345-2384, October.
  24. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
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