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Outlier Detection in Cointegration Analysis

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  • Franses, Philip Hans
  • Lucas, Andre

Abstract

Standard unit-root and cointegration tests are sensitive to atypical events such as outliers and structural breaks. In this article, the authors use outlier-robust estimation techniques to examine the impact of these events on cointegration analysis. Their outlier-robust cointegration test provides a new diagnostic tool for signaling when standard cointegration results might be driven by a few aberrant observations. A main feature of the authors' approach is that the proposed robust estimator can be used to compute weights for all observations, which in turn can be used to identify the approximate dates of atypical events. The authors evaluate their method using simulated data and a Monte Carlo experiment. The authors also present an empirical example showing the usefulness of the proposed analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Franses, Philip Hans & Lucas, Andre, 1998. "Outlier Detection in Cointegration Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 459-468, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:16:y:1998:i:4:p:459-68
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    Cited by:

    1. Borbély, Dóra & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2003. "Macroeconomic interval forecasting: the case of assessing the risk of deflation in Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1153, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. Barry Falk & Chun-Hsuan Wang, 2003. "Testing long-run PPP with infinite-variance returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 471-484.
    3. André Lucas & Bernd Schwaab & Xin Zhang, 2014. "Conditional Euro Area Sovereign Default Risk," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 271-284, April.
    4. Miguel Arranz & Alvaro Escribano, 2004. "Outliers - robust ECM cointegration tests based on the trend components," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 243-266, December.
    5. Espasa, Antoni & Carlomagno, Guillermo, 2014. "The pairwise approach to model a large set of disaggregates with common trends," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws141309, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    6. Georgiev, Iliyan, 2010. "Model-based asymptotic inference on the effect of infrequent large shocks on cointegrated variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 37-50, September.
    7. Franses, Philip Hans & Kloek, Teun & Lucas, Andre, 1998. "Outlier robust analysis of long-run marketing effects for weekly scanning data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 293-315, November.
    8. Benner Joachim & Meier Carsten-Patrick, 2004. "Prognosegüte alternativer Früh Indikatoren für die Konjunktur in Deutschland / Forecasting Performance of Alternative Indicators for the German Economy," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 224(6), pages 639-652, December.
    9. Diego Winkelried, 2014. "Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting in Peru," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1181-1196, June.
    10. Carlos Andrés Perilla Castro, 2001. "Capitales mínimos de los establecimientos de crédito," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(3), pages 271-353, julio-sep.
    11. Boswijk, H. Peter & Lucas, André & Taylor, Nick, 1998. "A comparison of parametric, semi-nonparametric, adaptive and nonparametric tests," Serie Research Memoranda 0062, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    12. Bruno Bosco & Lucia Parisio & Matteo Pelagatti & Fabio Baldi, 2007. "A robust multivariate long run analysis of European electricity prices," Working Papers 20070901, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Dipartimento di Statistica.
    13. H. Peter Boswijk & Andre Lucas & Nick Taylor, 1999. "A Comparison of Parametric, Semi-nonparametric, Adaptive, and Nonparametric Cointegration Tests," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-012/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911.
    15. Darne, Olivier & Diebolt, Claude, 2004. "Unit roots and infrequent large shocks: new international evidence on output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1449-1465, October.
    16. Luis A. Rivas & José de Jesús Rojas, 2001. "Precios relativos, inflación subyacente y metas de inflación: un análisis para Nicaragua," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(3), pages 355-380, julio-sep.
    17. Winkelried, Diego, 2012. "Traspaso del tipo de cambio y metas de inflación en el Perú," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 23, pages 9-24.
    18. Katarzyna Rosiak-Lada, 2008. "Stylized Facts of Macroeconomics: the Polish Experience," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 20.
    19. Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2004. "Investigating the impact of an appreciation of the euro in a small macroeconometric model of Germany and the euro area," Kiel Working Papers 1204, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    20. Daniel G. Garcés Díaz, 2001. "Determinación del nivel de precios y la dinámica inflacionaria en México," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(3), pages 241-269, julio-sep.
    21. Bernd Schwaab, 2012. "Conditional probabilities and contagion measures for euro area sovereign default risk," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 17, pages 6-11.
    22. Andreas Benedictow & Pål Boug, 2013. "Trade liberalisation and exchange rate pass-through: the case of textiles and wearing apparels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 757-788, October.
    23. Eser, Fabian & Schwaab, Bernd, 2016. "Evaluating the impact of unconventional monetary policy measures: Empirical evidence from the ECB׳s Securities Markets Programme," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 147-167.
    24. Bruno Bosco & Lucia Parisio & Matteo Pelagatti & Fabio Baldi, 2010. "Long-run relations in european electricity prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 805-832.
    25. Schwaab, Bernd & Lucas, André & Zhang, Xin, 2013. "Conditional and joint credit risk," Working Paper Series 1621, European Central Bank.

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