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Deciphering financial contagion in the euro area during the crisis

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  • Tola, Albi
  • Wälti, Sébastien

Abstract

Financial market interdependence has been at the epicenter of the crisis in the euro area. This paper tests for the existence of financial contagion during this crisis, defined as the international transmission of country-specific shocks beyond the normal channels of financial interdependence. Since contagion relates purely to country-specific shocks, we combine the standard contagion test of Favero and Giavazzi (2002) with an innovative narrative approach to separate out global and euro area shocks from country-specific shocks. Financial contagion has been widespread during the crisis in the euro area. About 80 percent of country-specific shocks are contagious. We also find significant evidence of flight-to-safety effects between the core and the periphery of the euro area. Global and euro area shocks have been important drivers of sovereign bond yields in the euro area.

Suggested Citation

  • Tola, Albi & Wälti, Sébastien, 2012. "Deciphering financial contagion in the euro area during the crisis," MPRA Paper 49251, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:49251
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:eee:quaeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:kap:compec:v:50:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s10614-016-9606-z is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Roberto Tamborini, 2015. "Heterogeneous Market Beliefs, Fundamentals and the Sovereign Debt Crisis in the Eurozone," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82, pages 1153-1176, December.
    4. Roberto Tamborini, 2017. "Europe at the Interdependence War," EconPol Working Paper 2, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    5. Noureddine BENLAGHA & Slim MSEDDI, 2016. "The Macroeconomic And Financial Impacts Of European Crisis On Saudi Arabia," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(1).
    6. Peter Schwendner & Martin Schuele & Thomas Ott & Martin Hillebrand, 2015. "European Government Bond Dynamics and Stability Policies: Taming Contagion Risks," Working Papers 8, European Stability Mechanism.
    7. Giuliana Passamani & Roberto Tamborini & Matteo Tomaselli, 2014. "Sustainability vs. credibility of fiscal consolidation. A Principal Components test for the Euro Zone," DEM Discussion Papers 2014/09, Department of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    contagion; sovereign bond; euro; financial crisis; narrative approach;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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