IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v255y2025ics0165176525003441.html

Economic crisis contagion in the eurozone: Results from cross-quantilogram and network approach

Author

Listed:
  • Beck, Krzysztof
  • Grabowski, Wojciech

Abstract

We investigate economic crisis contagion across 20 Eurozone countries using cross-quantilogram and network analysis. The results highlight the asymmetric nature of economic contagion in the Eurozone. On the one hand, there is strong evidence of contagion during economic crises; on the other hand, no evidence supports contagion during periods of economic expansion. Furthermore, we identify a three-tier stratification of countries based on economic contagion. Ireland and Malta lay outside the Eurozone contagion network. At the core are Germany, The Netherlands, Austria, Luxembourg, Italy, and Spain, characterized by a high degree of reciprocal contagion. The remaining countries form the periphery, primarily influenced by contagion from the core. Lastly, we find that contagion operates predominantly through trade, with only weak evidence supporting the role of financial integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Beck, Krzysztof & Grabowski, Wojciech, 2025. "Economic crisis contagion in the eurozone: Results from cross-quantilogram and network approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:255:y:2025:i:c:s0165176525003441
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112507
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176525003441
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112507?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, 2016. "Introducing a New Broad-based Index of Financial Development," IMF Working Papers 2016/005, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Peydró, José-Luis, 2013. "Financial regulation, financial globalization, and the synchronization of economic activity," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 68(3), pages 1179-1228.
    3. Crowley, Patrick M., 2008. "One money, several cycles? : evaluation of European business cycles using model-based cluster analysis," Research Discussion Papers 3/2008, Bank of Finland.
    4. Crowley, Patrick M. & Garcia, Enrique & Chee-Heong, Quah, 2013. "Is Europe growing together or growing apart?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 33/2013, Bank of Finland.
    5. Castellacci, Giuseppe & Choi, Youngna, 2015. "Modeling contagion in the Eurozone crisis via dynamical systems," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 400-410.
    6. Crowley, Patrick M. & Garcia, Enrique & Quah, Chee-Heong, 2013. "Is Europe growing together or growing apart?," Research Discussion Papers 33/2013, Bank of Finland.
    7. Tola, Albi & Wälti, Sébastien, 2015. "Deciphering financial contagion in the euro area during the crisis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 108-123.
    8. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    9. Krzysztof Beck, 2023. "Synchronization without similarity. The effects of COVID-19 pandemic on GDP growth and inflation in the Eurozone," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(8), pages 1028-1032, May.
    10. Lee, Jim, 2012. "Measuring business cycle comovements in Europe: Evidence from a dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 438-440.
    11. Duval, Romain & Li, Nan & Saraf, Richa & Seneviratne, Dulani, 2016. "Value-added trade and business cycle synchronization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 251-262.
    12. Han, Heejoon & Linton, Oliver & Oka, Tatsushi & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2016. "The cross-quantilogram: Measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(1), pages 251-270.
    13. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    14. Crowley, Patrick M., 2008. "One money, several cycles? Evaluation of European business cycles using model-based cluster analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2008, Bank of Finland.
    15. Krzysztof Beck, 2021. "Capital mobility and the synchronization of business cycles: Evidence from the European Union," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 1065-1079, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Beck, Krzysztof & Yersh, Valeryia, 2024. "Economic integration and consumption risk sharing: A comparison of Eurozone and OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 784-803.
    2. Alcobia, João & Sobreira, Nuno & Cabral, Ricardo, 2025. "What could have been? A synthetic control evaluation of the effect of the Economic and Monetary Union on the net external wealth of periphery member states," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 49(3).
    3. Yu, Chunjiao & Zhao, Jiaqi & Cheng, Shixiong, 2023. "GVC trade and business cycle synchronization between China and belt-road countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Nestor Azcona, 2022. "Trade and business cycle synchronization: The role of common trade partners," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 190-201.
    5. Krzysztof Beck & Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande, 2023. "Labor mobility and business cycle synchronization in Southern Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 159-179, February.
    6. Beck, Krzysztof, 2021. "Why business cycles diverge? Structural evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Lee, Hyun-Hoon & Park, Cyn-Young & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2024. "International business cycle synchronization: A synthetic assessment," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    8. Hwang, Sun Ho & Kim, Yun Jung, 2021. "International output synchronization at different frequencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    9. Gunnella, Vanessa & Lebastard, Laura & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma & Serafini, Roberta & Mattioli, Alessandro Zona, 2021. "The impact of the euro on trade: two decades into monetary union," Occasional Paper Series 283, European Central Bank.
    10. Frank Niklas Steinert & Wilhelm Althammer, 2025. "The endogeneity of optimum currency areas in light of pan-European intra-industry trade patterns and business cycle synchronicity," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 121-142, February.
    11. Campos, Nauro F. & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2021. "The dynamics of core and periphery in the European monetary union: A new approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    12. Richard Friberg & Mark Sanctuary, 2022. "Matched trade at the firm level and the micro origins of international business‐cycle comovement," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2997-3009, July.
    13. de Soyres, François & Gaillard, Alexandre, 2022. "Global trade and GDP comovement," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    14. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    15. Imbs, Jean & Pauwels, Laurent, 2025. "Measuring foreign exposure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    16. Shen, Jiancheng & Selover, David D. & Li, Chao & Yousefi, Hamed, 2022. "An ocean apart? The effects of US business cycles on Chinese business cycles," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 677-698.
    17. Norrana Khidil & Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi & Zulkefly Abdul Karim, 2021. "Fragmentation of International Production and Business Cycle Synchronization: New Evidence pre and during Global Financial Crises," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-15, April.
    18. Daoju Peng & Kang Shi & Juanyi Xu, 2020. "Global Value Chain and Business Cycle Comovement: Does Distance Matter?," HKUST CEP Working Papers Series 202005, HKUST Center for Economic Policy.
    19. Tang, Aidi & Yao, Wen, 2022. "The effects of financial integration during crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    20. Nestor Azcona, 2022. "Business Cycle Co-Movement in Europe: Trade, Industry Composition and the Single Currency," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 121-139, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:255:y:2025:i:c:s0165176525003441. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.