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Expectations and systemic risk in EMU government bond spreads

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  • Paolo Canofari
  • Giancarlo Marini
  • Giovanni Piersanti

Abstract

This paper explores the determinants of 10-year sovereign bond spreads over the German Bund benchmark in the Euro Zone from 2000 to 2013, relying on cross-country quarterly data panel analysis. The paper focal point is the role of contagion and euro break-up risks in widening the sovereign bond yield differentials among EU member countries. Using a novel synthetic index capable of monitoring the sustainability of currency unions, the paper finds that market expectations of a euro's break up and contagion from Greece were fundamental drivers of sovereign risk premia in peripheral countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Canofari & Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2015. "Expectations and systemic risk in EMU government bond spreads," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 711-724, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:15:y:2015:i:4:p:711-724
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2014.968606
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bagnai, Alberto & Granville, Brigitte & Mongeau Ospina, Christian A., 2017. "Withdrawal of Italy from the euro area: Stochastic simulations of a structural macroeconometric model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 524-538.
    3. Paolo Canofari & Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2014. "Measuring Currency Pressure and Contagion Risks in Countries under Monetary Unions: The Case of Euro," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 42(4), pages 455-469, December.
    4. Alberto Bagnai & Brigitte Granville & Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina, 2017. "Withdrawal of Italy from the Eurozone: stochastic simulations of a structural macroeconometric model," a/ Working Papers Series 1702, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    5. Szczypińska, Agnieszka, 2014. "Does the halo effect still hold? The (post-) crisis perspective for the euro candidates," MF Working Papers 18, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 30 Jan 2014.
    6. Canofari, Paolo & Piergallini, Alessandro & Piersanti, Giovanni, 2020. "The Fallacy Of Fiscal Discipline," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 55-68, January.
    7. Paolo Canofari & Alessandro Ponte, 2018. "Chinese and European Financial Systems: Instability Drivers and Contagion Channels," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 24(4), pages 311-324, November.
    8. Leschinski, Christian & Bertram, Philip, 2017. "Time varying contagion in EMU government bond spreads," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 72-91.

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    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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