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De facto Fiscal Space and Fiscal Stimulus: Definition and Assessment

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  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Yothin Jinjarak

Abstract

We define the notion of a 'de facto fiscal space' of a country as the inverse of the tax-years it would take to repay the public debt. Specifically, we measure the outstanding public debt relative to the de facto tax base, where the latter measures the realized tax collection, averaged across several years to smooth for business cycle fluctuations. We apply this concept to account for the cross-country variation in the fiscal stimulus associated with the global crisis of 2009-2010. We find that greater de facto fiscal space prior to the global crisis, higher GDP/capita, higher financial exposure to the US, and lower trade openness were associated with a higher fiscal stimulus/GDP during 2009-2010. Joint estimation indicates that higher trade openness was associated with lower fiscal stimulus and higher depreciation rate during 2009-2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2010. "De facto Fiscal Space and Fiscal Stimulus: Definition and Assessment," NBER Working Papers 16539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16539
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua Aizenman & Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, 2010. "Fiscal fragility: what the past may say about the future," NBER Working Papers 16478, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2009. "Globalisation and Developing Countries - a Shrinking Tax Base?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 653-671.
    4. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2010. "De facto Fiscal Space and Fiscal Stimulus: Definition and Assessment," NBER Working Papers 16539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2010. "De facto Fiscal Space and Fiscal Stimulus: Definition and Assessment," NBER Working Papers 16539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Paolo Canofari & Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2015. "Expectations and systemic risk in EMU government bond spreads," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 711-724, April.
    3. Beteta, Hugo E. & Moreno Brid, Juan Carlos, 2014. "Structural change and growth in Central America and the Dominican Republic: an overview of two decades, 1990-2011," Libros de la CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 122 edited by Eclac.
    4. Djedje Hermann Yohou, 2015. "In Search of Fiscal Space in Africa: The Role of the Quality of Government Spending," Working Papers halshs-01222812, HAL.
    5. World Bank Group, "undated". "Africa's Pulse, No. 14, October 2016," World Bank Other Operational Studies 25097, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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