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Fiscal fragility: what the past may say about the future

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  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Gurnain Kaur Pasricha

Abstract

The end of the great moderation has profound implications on the assessment of fiscal sustainability. The pertinent issue goes beyond the obvious increase in the stock of public debt/GDP induced by the global recession, to include the neglected perspective that the vulnerabilities associated with a given public debt/GDP increase with the future volatility of key economic variables. We evaluate for a given future projected public debt/GDP, the possible distribution of the fiscal burden or the flow cost of funding debt for each OECD country, assuming that this in future decades resembles that in the past four decades. Fiscal projections may be alarmist if one jumps from the priors of great moderation to the prior of permanent high future burden. Prudent adjustment for countries exposed to heightened vulnerability may entail both short term stabilization and forward looking fiscal reforms.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Aizenman & Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, 2010. "Fiscal fragility: what the past may say about the future," NBER Working Papers 16478, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16478
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    Cited by:

    1. Stoian, Andreea & Obreja Brasoveanu, Laura & Dumitrescu, Bogdan & Brasoveanu, Iulian, 2015. "A new framework for detecting the short term fiscal vulnerability for the European Union countries," MPRA Paper 63537, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2012. "The Fiscal Stimulus of 2009-2010: Trade Openness, Fiscal Space, and Exchange Rate Adjustment," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 301-342.
    3. Török, Ádám, 2011. "Intézményépítés a túlzott államadósság elleni védekezés érdekében [Building institutions to guard against excessive state debt]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 577-591.
    4. Andreea Stoian & Filip Iorgulescu, 2016. "The study of public debt: which are the distinctions between the emerging and advanced economies in the European Union?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 167-196, February.
    5. Stoian, Andreea & Iorgulescu, Filip, 2016. "Do Investors Listen to Fiscal Policy? – Study case Bucharest Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 72458, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Joshua Aizenman & Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, 2011. "Net Fiscal Stimulus During the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 16779, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Andreea Stoian & Laura Obreja Brașoveanu & Iulian Viorel Brașoveanu & Bogdan Dumitrescu, 2018. "A Framework to Assess Fiscal Vulnerability: Empirical Evidence for European Union Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-20, July.
    8. repec:cdl:ucscec:qt6dn0n13t is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Jussi Lindgren, 2021. "Examination of Interest-Growth Differentials and the Risk of Sovereign Insolvency," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-14, April.
    10. repec:cdl:ucscec:qt1vm5d1p4 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Joshua Aizenman & Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, 2013. "Special Issue. Guest Editor: Zhihao Yu," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 397-413, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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