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Why Do Emerging Markets Liberalize Capital Outflow Controls? Fiscal versus Net Capital Flow Concerns

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  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Gurnain Pasricha

Abstract

In this paper, we provide empirical evidence on the factors that motivated emerging economies to change their capital outflow controls in recent decades. Liberalization of capital outflow controls can allow emerging-market economies (EMEs) to reduce net capital inflow (NKI) pressures, but may cost their governments the fiscal revenues that external financial repression generates. Our results indicate that external repression revenues in EMEs declined substantially in the 2000s compared with the 1980s. In line with this decline in external repression revenues and their growth accelerations in the 2000s, concerns related to net capital inflows took predominance over fiscal concerns in the decisions to liberalize capital outflow controls. Overheating and foreign exchange valuation concerns arising from NKI pressures were important, but so were financial stability concerns and concerns about macroeconomic volatility. Emerging markets facing high volatility in net capital inflows and higher short-term balance-sheet exposures liberalized outflows less. Countries eased outflows more in response to higher appreciation pressures in the exchange market, stock market appreciation, real exchange rate volatility, net capital inflows and accumulation of reserves.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Aizenman & Gurnain Pasricha, 2013. "Why Do Emerging Markets Liberalize Capital Outflow Controls? Fiscal versus Net Capital Flow Concerns," Staff Working Papers 13-21, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:13-21
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    1. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2018. "Chinese outwards mercantilism – The art and practice of bundling," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 31-49.
    2. Ito, Takatoshi, 2017. "A new financial order in Asia: Will a RMB bloc emerge?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 232-257.
    3. Miguel Acosta-Henao & Laura Alfaro & Andrés Fernández, 2020. "Sticky Capital Controls," NBER Working Papers 26997, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Benigno, Gianluca & Chen, Huigang & Otrok, Christopher & Rebucci, Alessandro & Young, Eric R., 2016. "Optimal capital controls and real exchange rate policies: A pecuniary externality perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 147-165.
    5. Aizenman, Joshua & Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ito, Hiro, 2015. "International reserves before and after the global crisis: Is there no end to hoarding?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 102-126.
    6. Forbes, Kristin & Fratzscher, Marcel & Straub, Roland, 2015. "Capital-flow management measures: What are they good for?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 76-97.
    7. Cavallo, Eduardo & Powell, Andrew & Pedemonte, Mathieu & Tavella, Pilar, 2015. "A new taxonomy of Sudden Stops: Which Sudden Stops should countries be most concerned about?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 47-70.
    8. Joshua Aizenman, 2015. "Internationalization of the RMB, Capital Market Openness and Financial Reforms in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 444-460, August.
    9. Binici, Mahir & Das, Mitali, 2021. "Recalibration of capital controls: Evidence from the IMF taxonomy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    10. Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, 2017. "Policy Rules for Capital Controls," BIS Working Papers 670, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Li, Jie & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2015. "Do capital controls make gross equity flows to emerging markets less volatile?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 220-244.
    12. Aizenman, Joshua & Binici, Mahir, 2016. "Exchange market pressure in OECD and emerging economies: Domestic vs. external factors and capital flows in the old and new normal," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 65-87.
    13. Andrés Fernández & Alessandro Rebucci & Martín Uribe, 2013. "Are Capital Controls Prudential? An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 19671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Pastor, Manuel & Wise, Carol, 2015. "Good-Bye financial crash, hello financial eclecticism: Latin American responses to the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 200-217.
    15. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur & Falagiarda, Matteo & Bijsterbosch, Martin & Aizenman, Joshua, 2018. "Domestic and multilateral effects of capital controls in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 48-58.
    16. Radhika Pandey & Gurnain Pasricha & Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2015. "Motivations for Capital Controls and Their Effectiveness," Staff Working Papers 15-5, Bank of Canada.
    17. Kristin Forbes & Marcel Fratzscher & Roland Straub, 2013. "Capital Controls and Macroprudential Measures: What Are They Good For?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1343, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Kristin J Forbes & Michael W Klein, 2015. "Pick Your Poison: The Choices and Consequences of Policy Responses to Crises," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(1), pages 197-237, May.
    19. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    20. Steiner, Andreas, 2017. "Central banks and macroeconomic policy choices: Relaxing the trilemma," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 283-299.
    21. Amira MAJOUL & Olfa MANAI DABOUSSI, 2016. "Nonlinear Effects of the Financial Crisis on Economic Growth in Asian Countries: Empirical Evaluation with a PSTR Model," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(8), pages 445-456, August.
    22. David Hillier & Tiago Loncan, 2019. "Stock market integration, cost of equity capital, and corporate investment: Evidence from Brazil," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 25(1), pages 181-206, January.
    23. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Nancy Marion, 2014. "China’s Growth, Stability, and Use of International Reserves," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 407-428, July.
    24. G. Andrew Karolyi & David T. Ng & Eswar S. Prasad, 2013. "The Coming Wave," Working Papers 082013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt Management; Financial system regulation and policies; International topics; Recent economic and financial developments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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