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Globalization and Developing Countries - a Shrinking Tax Base ?

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  • Aizenman, Joshua
  • Jinjarak, Yothin

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of globalization on the tax bases of countries at varying stages of development. We see globalization as a process that induces countries to embrace greater trade and financial integration, and macro stabilization. This in turn should shift their tax base from “easy to collect” taxes [tariff, seigniorage, etc.] towards “hard to collect” taxes [VAT, income tax, etc.]. We confirm this prediction – the revenue/GDP ratio of the “easy to collect” taxes declined by about 20% in developing countries between the early 1980s and the late 1990s, while the revenue/GDP of the “hard to collect” taxes increased by 9%. The relatively small initial base of “hard to collect” taxes in developing countries implied a net 7% drop in total tax revenue/GDP. Applying panel regressions and controlling for structural factors, we find that trade openness and financial integration have a positive relationship with “hard to collect” taxes, and negative relationship with the “easy to collect” taxes. The effects of globalization in our panel regressions are even larger than the effects of the institutional and political variables combined. Fiscal revenue from financial repression has also decreased, further reinforcing these results. The high income and the middle income countries managed to more than compensate for the revenue decline of the “easy to collect” taxes, increasing the total tax/GDP. In contrast, the upper and low income developing countries experienced sizeable drop in the tax/GDP. We also identify fiscal convergence: the coefficient of variation of tax revenue/GDP measures across countries declined substantially during 1980s - 1990s. The cross country variation declined by about 50% for seigniorage, about 30% for tariff, and about 15% for the “hard to collect” taxes. These results are consistent with the notion that improving the performance of the “hard to collect” taxes is more challenging than reducing the use of “easy to collect” sources of revenue.

Suggested Citation

  • Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2006. "Globalization and Developing Countries - a Shrinking Tax Base ?," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8r12k4xr, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt8r12k4xr
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    Cited by:

    1. Alice Nicole Sindzingre, 2016. "From an Eroding Model to Questioned Trade Relationships: The European Union and Sub-Saharan Africa," Insight on Africa, , vol. 8(2), pages 81-95, July.
    2. Graziella Bertocchi, 2011. "The Vanishing Bequest Tax: The Comparative Evolution Of Bequest Taxation In Historical Perspective," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 107-131, March.
    3. Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Violeta Vulovic & Yongzheng Liu, 2011. "Direct versus Indirect Taxation: Trends, Theory, and Economic Significance," Chapters, in: Emilio Albi & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (ed.), The Elgar Guide to Tax Systems, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Natalia Porto & Noelia Garbero & Fernando Bazán, 2011. "El proceso de apertura comercial en Argentina y su relación con los ingresos fiscales," CEFIP, Working Papers 005, CEFIP, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    5. Ahmad, Khalil & Ali, Safdar & Ali, Amjad, 2018. "Trade Revenue Implications of Trade Liberalization in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 87529, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Richard M. Bird, 2011. "Value-Added Tax: Onward and Upward?," Chapters, in: Emilio Albi & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (ed.), The Elgar Guide to Tax Systems, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Liberati, Paolo, 2007. "Trade Openness, Capital Openness and Government Size," Journal of Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 215-247, August.
    8. Robert Hill & Daniel Melser, 2015. "Benchmark averaging and the measurement of changes in international income inequality," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 151(4), pages 767-801, November.
    9. Mirakhor, Abbas, 2007. "Islamic Finance and Globalization: A Convergence?," MPRA Paper 56026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Yaru, Mohammed Aminu & Raji, Ajibola Simbiat, 2021. "Corruption, Governance and Tax Revenue Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(01), December.
    11. Mr. Paulo Drummond & Mr. Wendell Daal & Mr. Nandini Srivastava & Mr. Luiz E Oliveira, 2012. "Mobilizing Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa: Empirical Norms and Key Determinants," IMF Working Papers 2012/108, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Stevan Luković, 2015. "The Impact Of Globalization On The Characteristics Of Tax Systems Of The European Countries," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 60(206), pages 117-140, July - Se.
    13. Gordon Roger H., 2010. "Public Finance and Economic Development: Reflections based on Experience in China," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-29, January.
    14. Romain Houssa & Kelbesa Megersa, 2017. "Institutional quality, economic development and the performance of VAT," BeFinD Working Papers 0115, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
    15. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-01 is not listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation

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