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Quantitative easing and sovereign yield spreads: Euro-area time-varying evidence

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  • Afonso, António
  • Tovar Jalles, João

Abstract

We assess the determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the period 1999:01–2016:07, considering non-conventional monetary policy measures in the Euro area. We use a 2-step approach to: (i) confirm and estimate the determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads; (ii) compute bivariate time-varying coefficient (TVC) models of each determinant and analyse the temporal dynamics. The baseline determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the Euro area are the bid-ask spread, the VIX, fiscal developments and rating developments, REER, and economic growth. QE measures implemented by the ECB in the aftermath of the crisis are also relevant. From the TVC analysis, the Covered Bond Purchase Programme contributed to reduce yield spreads, particularly in the 2011–2013 period. Longer-term refinancing operations contributed to reduce yield spreads in most countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Afonso, António & Tovar Jalles, João, 2019. "Quantitative easing and sovereign yield spreads: Euro-area time-varying evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 208-224.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:58:y:2019:i:c:p:208-224
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2018.10.003
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign bonds; Fiscal policy; Non-conventional monetary policy; Time-varying coefficients; Model selection; Panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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