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Short and Long-run Behaviour of Long-term Sovereign Bond Yields

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  • António Afonso
  • Christophe Rault

Abstract

This study assesses the short and long-run behaviour of long-term sovereign bond yields in OECD countries, for the period 1973-2008. We employ a dynamic panel approach to reflect financial and economic integration, and to increase the performance and accuracy of the tests. Given the existence of cross-country dependence regarding sovereign yields and its determinants, we resort to simulation and bootstrap methods for the analysis. Results based on the Common Correlated Effect estimator of Pesaran (2006) and on Panel Error Correction Models to sort out short- and long-run fiscal developments show that in addition to common movements in sovereign yields, investors also consider country differences arising from specific factors (inflation, budgetary and current account imbalances, real effective exchange rates, and liquidity).

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "Short and Long-run Behaviour of Long-term Sovereign Bond Yields," CESifo Working Paper Series 3249, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3249
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    3. António Afonso & Michael G. Arghyrou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU," Working Papers 2012_14, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    4. Anastasios Pappas & Ioannis Kostakis, 2020. "The Driving Factors of EMU Government Bond Yields: The Role of Debt, Liquidity and Fiscal Councils," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(3), pages 1-13, September.
    5. Afonso, António & Tovar Jalles, João, 2019. "Quantitative easing and sovereign yield spreads: Euro-area time-varying evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 208-224.
    6. Mackiewicz-Łyziak, Joanna & Łyziak, Tomasz, 2019. "A new test for fiscal sustainability with endogenous sovereign bond yields: Evidence for EU economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 136-151.
    7. António Afonso, & Manuel Reis, 2016. "Revisiting Sovereign Bond Spreads’Determinants in the EMU," Working Papers Department of Economics 2016/08, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    8. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2020. "Economic volatility and sovereign yields’ determinants: a time-varying approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 427-451, February.
    9. Malešević Perović, Lena, 2015. "The impact of fiscal positions on government bond yields in CEE countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 301-316.
    10. Ryan van Lamoen & Simona Mattheussens & Martijn Dröes, 2017. "Quantitative easing and exuberance in government bond markets: Evidence from the ECB's expanded asset purchase program," DNB Working Papers 548, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    11. Laura Jaramillo & Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang, 2013. "Real Money Investors and Sovereign Bond Yields," IMF Working Papers 2013/254, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Pedro R.D. Bom & Jenny E. Ligthart, 2014. "What Have We Learned From Three Decades Of Research On The Productivity Of Public Capital?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 889-916, December.
    13. Wenjing Zhang & Hengzhou Xu, 2017. "Exploring the causal relationship between carbon emissions and land urbanization quality in China using a panel data analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 1445-1462, August.
    14. J. Beleza Sousa & Manuel L. Esquível & Raquel M. Gaspar, 2019. "Pulled-to-Par Returns for Zero Coupon Bonds Historical Simulation Value at Risk," Working Papers REM 2019/93, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    15. Christopher Findlay & Silvia Sorescu & Camilo Umana Dajud, 2016. "Markets are Smart! Structural Reforms and Country Risk," Working Papers 2016-23, CEPII research center.
    16. Martijn (M.I.) Droes & Ryan van Lamoen & Simona Mattheussens, 2017. "Quantitative Easing and Exuberance in Government Bond Markets: Evidence from the ECB's Expanded Assets Purchase Program," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-080/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    17. António Afonso & Frederico Silva Leal, 2017. "Sovereign yield spreads in the EMU: crisis and structural determinants," Working Papers Department of Economics 2017/09, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    18. Dogan, Eyup & Seker, Fahri, 2016. "Determinants of CO2 emissions in the European Union: The role of renewable and non-renewable energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 429-439.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    long-term yields; EU; financial integration; panel cointegration; bootstrap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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