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Long-term government bond yields and economic forecasts: evidence for the EU

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  • Antonio Afonso

Abstract

I use a panel of semi-annual vintages of growth and fiscal forecasts of the European Commission, covering the period 1998:II-2008:II, to assess its effects on 10-year government yields for 14 EU countries. Results show that yields increase with better growth forecasts and with decreases in budget balance-to-GDP rations, signaling that sovereigns may need to pay more to finance higher budget deficits in the market.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Afonso, 2010. "Long-term government bond yields and economic forecasts: evidence for the EU," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(15), pages 1437-1441.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:17:y:2010:i:15:p:1437-1441
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850903049627
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    Cited by:

    1. Afonso, António & Martins, Manuel M.F., 2012. "Level, slope, curvature of the sovereign yield curve, and fiscal behaviour," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1789-1807.
    2. António Afonso & Jorge Silva, 2012. "The Fiscal Forecasting Track Record of the European Commission and Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/37, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. Panagiotis Petrakis & Emmanuel Papadakis & Nikoleta Daniilopoulou, 2012. "Public Statements on Sovereign Yield Spreads:The Greek Case," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 6(2), pages 5-16, December.
    4. António Afonso & Michael G. Arghyrou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU," Working Papers 2012_14, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    5. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Sergio Sola, 2013. "Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates and Risk Premia in Open Economy," IHEID Working Papers 05-2013, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    6. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Vergos, Konstantinos, 2013. "Sovereign bond yield spillovers in the Euro zone during the financial and debt crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 258-272.
    7. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2016. "Economic Volatility and Sovereign Yields’ Determinants: a Time-Varying Approach," Working Papers Department of Economics 2016/04, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    8. Afonso, António & Nunes, Ana Sofia, 2015. "Economic forecasts and sovereign yields," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 319-326.
    9. Gerhard Reitschuler & Rupert Sendlhofer, 2011. "Fiscal policy, trigger points and interest rates: Additional evidence from the U.S," Working Papers 2011-23, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
    10. Dell’Erba Salvatore & Sola Sergio, 2016. "Does fiscal policy affect interest rates? Evidence from a factor-augmented panel," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 395-437, June.
    11. Salvatore Dell’Erba & Sergio Sola, 2011. "Expected fiscal policy and interest rates in open economy," IHEID Working Papers 07-2011, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    12. António Afonso & Jorge Silva, 2015. "The track record of fiscal forecasting in the EU," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(2), pages 1318-1329.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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