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Fiscal shocks, public debt, and long-term interest rate dynamics


  • Marattin, Luigi

    () (University of Bologna (Italy))

  • Paesani, Paolo

    (University of Rome-Tor Vergata (Italy))

  • Salotti, Simone

    (National University of Ireland, Galway (Ireland))


Public Finances worldwide have been severely hit by the 2008-2009 Great Recession, stimulating the debate on the consequences of growing fiscal imbalances. Building on Paesani et al. (2006), this paper focuses on the USA, Germany and Italy over the 1983-2009 period and studies the effects of fiscal shocks and government debt accumulation on long-term interest rates, both nationally and across borders. Based on a atheoretical framework, the empirical analysis disentangles permanent and transitory components of interest rates dynamics finding that sustained debt accumulation leads, at least temporarily, to higher long-term interest rates. The is particularly true for the Italian case. There is also evidence of significant cross-country linkages, mainly between Italy and the USA.

Suggested Citation

  • Marattin, Luigi & Paesani, Paolo & Salotti, Simone, 2011. "Fiscal shocks, public debt, and long-term interest rate dynamics," Working Papers 14/2011, Universidade Portucalense, Centro de Investigação em Gestão e Economia (CIGE).
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:cigewp:2011_014

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    Cited by:

    1. Perveen, Asma & Munir, Kashif, 2017. "Impact of Total, Internal and External Government Debt on Interest Rate in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 83427, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    Public debt; long-term interest rates; cointegration; common trends.;

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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