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From EMS to EMU

Author

Listed:
  • Fratianni, Michele
  • von Hagen, Jürgen
  • Waller, Christopher

Abstract

This paper discusses the strategic choices involved in the transformation of the current EMS into a European Monetary Union. Alternative strategy proposals are evaluated under the criteria of credibility, flexibility, effective institution-building and mitigation of end games. The Delors strategy mistakes exchange rate fixity for credibility, resulting in an overly rigid and unstable strategy. The Hard Ecu provides flexibility, but is unlikely to achieve EMU. We propose a softened EMS - the Two-Tier EMS - as an alternative that meets the four criteria in a more satisfactory way. The second part develops a principal-agent model of the central bank, which embodies an explanation of political business cycles and the credibility problem. We use this model to show that the current draft of the statutes of the European Central Bank does not solve the dilemma of discretion and credibility in a satisfactory way.

Suggested Citation

  • Fratianni, Michele & von Hagen, Jürgen & Waller, Christopher, 1992. "From EMS to EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 618, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:618
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Strauch, Rolf & Paesani, Paolo & Kremer, Manfred, 2006. "Public debt and long-term interest rates: the case of Germany, Italy and the USA," Working Paper Series 656, European Central Bank.
    2. Jürgen von Hagen, 2002. "Fiscal Rules, Fiscal Institutions, and Fiscal Performance," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 263-284.
    3. Patrick M. Crowley, 1996. "Emu, Maastricht, And The 1996 Intergovernmental Conference," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(2), pages 41-55, April.
    4. Hagen, Jürgen von, 2005. "Political Economy of Fiscal Institutions," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 149, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    5. L. Marattin & P. Paesani & S. Salotti, 2011. "Fiscal shocks, public debt, and long-term interest rate dynamics," Working Papers wp740, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    6. von Hagen, Jürgen & Strauch, Rolf R., 2001. "German public finances: Recent experiences and future challenges," ZEI Working Papers B 13-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    7. Bernhard Eschweiler & Michael D. Bordo, 1993. "Rules, Discretion, and Central Bank Independence: The German Experience 1880-1989," NBER Working Papers 4547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central Bank Constitution; EMI; Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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