From EMS to EMU
This paper discusses the strategic choices involved in the transformation of the current EMS into a European Monetary Union. Alternative strategy proposals are evaluated under the criteria of credibility, flexibility, effective institution-building and mitigation of end games. The Delors strategy mistakes exchange rate fixity for credibility, resulting in an overly rigid and unstable strategy. The Hard Ecu provides flexibility, but is unlikely to achieve EMU. We propose a softened EMS - the Two-Tier EMS - as an alternative that meets the four criteria in a more satisfactory way. The second part develops a principal-agent model of the central bank, which embodies an explanation of political business cycles and the credibility problem. We use this model to show that the current draft of the statutes of the European Central Bank does not solve the dilemma of discretion and credibility in a satisfactory way.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
|Date of creation:||Jan 1992|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.|
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
|Order Information:|| Email: |
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:618. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask to update the entry or send us the correct email address
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.