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Sovereign Bond Yield Spillovers in the Euro Zone During the Financial and Debt Crisis

  • Antonakakis, Nikolaos
  • Vergos, Konstantinos

In this paper we examine the linkages of government bond yield spreads (BYS) between Euro zone countries over the period March 3, 2007 - June 18, 2012, thus considering the intriguing features of BYS spillovers during the global financial and the Euro zone debt crisis. Splitting our sample to Euro zone periphery and core countries, and using the VAR-based spillover index approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), we find that: (i) on average, BYS shocks tend to increase future BYS, and are related to news announcements and policy changes; (ii) BYS spillovers between Euro zone countries are highly intertwined, originating mostly from the periphery (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain (GIIPS)) and to a lesser extent from the core (Austria, Belgium, France and Netherlands (ABFN)). The within-effect of BYS spillovers is of greater magnitude within the periphery than that within the core; iv) The between-effect (core vs periphery) of BYS spillovers suggests directional spillovers of greater magnitude from the periphery to the Euro zone core than vice-versa. Generalized impulse response analyses provide additional support to these findings. Our findings highlight the increased vulnerability of Euro zone from the destabilizing shocks originating from the beleaguered Euro zone countries in the periphery.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 43284.

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Date of creation: 15 Dec 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43284
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  1. Peter Claeys & Borek Vašícek, 2012. "“Measuring Sovereign Bond Spillover in Europe and the Impact of Rating News”," AQR Working Papers 201209, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Nov 2012.
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  8. Skintzi, Vasiliki D. & Refenes, Apostolos N., 2006. "Volatility spillovers and dynamic correlation in European bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 23-40, February.
  9. Antonio Afonso, 2010. "Long-term government bond yields and economic forecasts: evidence for the EU," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(15), pages 1437-1441.
  10. Marco Pagano & Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 2004. "The European Bond Markets under EMU," CSEF Working Papers 126, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  11. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  12. Faruk Balli, 2009. "Spillover effects on government bond yields in euro zone. Does full financial integration exist in European government bond markets?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 331-363, October.
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  24. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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