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Business cycle synchronization during US recessions since the beginning of the 1870's

  • Antonakakis, Nikolaos

This paper examines the synchronization of business cycles across the G7 countries during US recessions since the 1870's. Using a dynamic measure of business cycle synchronization, results depend on the globalisation period under consideration. On average, US recessions have significantly positive effects on business cycle co-movements only in the period following the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates, while strongly decoupling effects among the G7 economies are documented during recessions that occurred under the classical Gold Standard. During the 2007-2009 recession, business cycles co-movements increased to unprecedented levels.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38341/1/MPRA_paper_38341.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 38341.

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Date of creation: Apr 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38341
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  1. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Johann Scharler, 2012. "The synchronization of GDP growth in the G7 during US recessions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 7-11, January.
  2. Jean Imbs, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," IMF Working Papers 03/81, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  4. N/A, 2009. "On the Recession," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 24(3), pages 253-253, May.
  5. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Johann Scharler, 2010. "The Synchronization of GDP Growth in the G7 during U.S. Recessions. Is this Time Different?," FIW Working Paper series 049, FIW.
  6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Yetman, James, 2011. "Exporting recessions: International links and the business cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 12-14, January.
  8. Mario J. Crucini & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "What Are the Driving Forces of International Business Cycles?," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0815, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
  9. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2003. "Breaks in the variability and co-movement of G-7 economic growth," International Finance Discussion Papers 786, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Michael Artis & George Chouliarakis & Pkg Harischandra, 2011. "Business Cycle Synchronization Since 1880," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 153, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  11. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2005. "Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 05/211, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Marco Terrones & Ayhan Kose & Stijn Claessens, 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?," IMF Working Papers 08/274, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2009. "Financial Globalization, Financial Crises and Contagion," NBER Working Papers 15432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Imbs, Jean, 2010. "The First Global Recession in Decades," CEPR Discussion Papers 7973, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
  16. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 57-62, May.
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